Some outlets have been doing 2020 awards. I appreciate the mainstream media catching up on my Mark Ball scoop, but am tired of seeing the same names again and again. My challenge: to only recognise figures who haven’t received an award yet.
Most surprising upset: Chris Bishop
A young, centrist Nat with a strong, funny social media presence, who rose under Muller and remained with Collins. What could go wrong? Hutt South is competitive, but he expected crossover support from both National and Labour voters. Instead, they left him in tears on election night.
Runnerups
Also in this category are Shane Reti’s loss in Whangārei, despite being the best part of National this year, and Gerry Brownlee’s loss in my own Ilam.
Biggest loser: Transformation
No accomplishment of the past three years was transformative. Even election night rhetoric abandoned transformation to appeal to voters doing fine as is. The main goal of Ardern’s Labour appears to be locking in gains on child poverty, but you need to have made gains first. Which leads us to...
Best-kept secret: the housing crisis
The focus on COVID-19 and parliamentary misconduct obscured the enduring housing crisis. Labour proposed one solution last time, then de facto repealed Kiwibuild without a replacement, ruling out a capital gains tax. Those struggling with housing got no new solution from the election result. The supply of articles about housing surged after the election - too late.
Most effective narrative: Federated Farmers
Here was the sell: farmers switched to Labour to keep the Greens out of government. Labour bought that and has kept the Greens at arm's length. This expects 4D chess from voters. Occam’s Razor says most rural voters, like most others, preferred the government’s handling of 2020 to the opposition’s.
Worst prediction: Gone by Lunchtime
The Spinoff’s election podcast reckoned Labour MP Duncan Webb - a straight-talking Kiwi stereotype bearing gumboots and plaidclothes - could be vulnerable in Christchurch Central. His winning margin was 14,098 votes. Nats candidate Dale Stephens, who I hear is also lovely, didn’t break 10,000.
Runnerup
The ABC/WaPost poll that put Biden seventeen points ahead in Wisconsin. (He won the state by just 0.63%.) And speaking of…
Statistical illiteracy: critics of US pollsters
This is a good examination, but the key points are: some polls, like Ann Selzer’s in Iowa, were bang-on; the polls recorded the winner correctly in forty-eight states; and being four points off is a normal margin of error. If they'd been seven or eight off and Biden lost, then there'd be something to talk about. Going after pollsters now is just blowing off election tension.
Most concerned about accountability: Rangitata
The major population centers of this rural southern Cantabrian electorate are Timaru, home of southern hospitality, and Ashburton, which this article’s cover image sums up. Andrew Falloon was rightfully denied a run for reelection, but Rangitata booted the blues anyway. Astonishingly, Michael Woodhouse, David Clark, Simon Bridges, Phil Twyford and Todd Muller all held their electorates. Onya, Ash Vegas.
Thank you Lucy!
Great takes!