2025 Predictions

It’s time to project 2025.

1. A party will change leader

A much more high-risk prediction to make than in 2024, when it was obvious 

that James Shaw was on the way out. The most likely option is a combination of Luxon continuing to perform poorly, a series of government competence issues, and National’s polling position looking dodgy for the next election, at which point the knives could come out for somebody more electable. Just kidding, it’s Chippy being rolled for somebody who can actually inspire and win. Still an unlikely scenario, but that’s more pleasant to think about than the next likeliest options, which are health-related (Peters dying or Marama having to resign to put her fight against cancer first).

2. A serious incident occurs with a ferry (e.g a casualty or a violent collision)

I think my awards monologue more than suffices to explain my feelings about the current state of aquacommerce in NZ. 

3. The Labour Party will announce their support for some new form of taxation intended to reduce inequality, most likely a capital gains tax.

They’ve been muttering for forever about it, they need some way to claw back support on the left, and the Greens and TPM will demand it as part of a coalition agreement anyway (and come under fire from the right for it). May as well embrace the reputation, right? And, helpfully, a shiny new tax answers a lot of persistent “how will you pay for it?” questions in the heat of an election campaign. I’m choosing CGT as more plausible than a wealth tax because, although this takes longer to kick in and will affect far more people, it’s also a clearer case of an easy-to-close loophole that will bring economic benefits. 

4. TOP disbands

Pack it in already, you lot. Politics has taken on more of a distinctly partisan character than in 2016-2017, when TOP emerged, and between ACT, TPM and the Greens, the energy has been sucked out of the room for both the neoliberal and progressive wings of TOP. After Manjimania went bust, there is no longer a viable political pathway to entering Parliament, and I just don’t think they have many ideas that are all that interesting to keep talking about anymore that other parties won’t just do anyway. It’s really just become a home for people who want to pat themselves on the back for being independent thinkers gliding over all. None of this reality means that they’ll recognise these facts, considering several other minor parties with far worse results have lumbered on, but there’s no harm in saying it’s a distinct possibility in any given year.

5. The Greens will lose another MP

We’ve seen plenty of evidence that their processes for both vetting incoming MPs and supporting current ones are inadequate. With the co-leadership in an unusually fragile position and the potential for ideological tensions to emerge, what’s to say somebody else won’t spin out? 

6. Keir Starmer’s approval rating will not rebound

Britain’s going through some tough times right now, and Labour look remarkably clueless about how to actually solve them, given Starmer’s already bickering with the public service. They look like they boxed themselves in to win an election and are now afraid to try out their toolkit. The Opposition benches might be in a risible state right now, but if Starmer is going to get into toothpick fights with Badenoch over the wokeness of sandwiches that won’t matter for much. There will be time to turn the ship around, but 2025 seems too soon for success.

7. Peace will descend upon the Middle East, excepting Yemen

Majorly wishcasting here because I can’t bring myself to anticipate the alternative. Still. Syria is utterly exhausted. al-Joulani has been making all the right noises, and importantly, even if he goes the direction of the Taliban in saying one thing and doing another, that doesn’t necessitate a war. (Has the violation of women’s rights ever caused a war?) With foreign foes in Turkey and Israel to turn baleful eyes towards, and with Syrian Kurdistan currently stable and not emanating instability into the rest of Syria, one can see a path to peace, whether under a theocracy or a democracy. As for Gaza, how much longer can the IDF keep trying to squeeze blood from a stone? Especially when Syria is now a whole new frontier to think about.

8.  A CDU/CSU-SDP-FDP “Germany” coalition will form

As discussed in my German election article, the left are almost certainly not going to win and the extremes will not enter government. That leaves the CDU/CSU and the FDP to take charge of the direction of the new government, but they will have to grow significantly for the two parties to be enough. Without that, they’re forced to choose between one of the two liberal democratic parties on the left to buddy up with, and Occam’s razor says that the more centrist of the two with the more votes is the safer option.

9.  All mayors of the major cities (by my arbitrary metric, Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin) will be reelected.

Paula Southgate, Phil Mauger and Jules Radich all seem, on a surface inspection, to be comfortably threading the needs of their communities without enough dissent to oust them. Wayne Brown, for all the opprobrium once heaped on him, has proven adept at wielding his megaphone. That leaves just Tory Whanau, who has been beset by troubles over the past few years, but who will be running for reelection in a city energised towards the left by a heavy-handed right-wing government bashing both the university-educated youth and the older public servants. That could be enough to get her back in.

10. Trump tariffs will significantly harm the American economy

We’ve been waiting so long to see it happen, it doesn’t feel actually real, but this is his signature economic policy and he’s not even backing down from remarking he’ll take high prices if it means he gets to do tariffs! I think he really wants to! 

11. Mike Johnson will be ejected as Speaker of the House

He only got the job because he didn’t particularly alienate anybody at the time, not for his virtues. He is a D grade talent in an A rank job, and these circumstances would stymie even the best amongst them, with a razor-thin majority built on total renegades happy to cause political chaos to get ahead personally. Sooner or later, he’ll find himself stuck between a rock and a hard place, and have to go like McCarthy before him. 

12. Justin Trudeau will leave office

Really easy ally-oop here. Either he’ll be pressured out by his own party or voted out in favour of Pierre Poilievre, whose name keeps confusing me into thinking his accent sounds French instead of North American. Canada is a curious country, y’all.

13. A massive FIFA scandal will erupt

They’re so blatant about their corruption, why wouldn’t history repeat itself?

14. David Seymour will have a public outburst

As he’s made himself a major character in the cast of NZ politics over the past few years, we’ve gotten to see a lot of him. And one of the curious things you notice is that he is a remarkably restrained individual in tone and temperament. Inflammatory words and contents, sure; clearly irritated by some things, absolutely. But he has a signature slow monotone and a tight grasp on his temper, and that seems to be a rare thing amongst many political leaders who end up finding their way to yelling, or a rapid tumbling of words. I thought all of this until I read this article, where he treats his media interlocutors to F-bombs. It’d make sense after the year he’s had that his patience is wearing thin…could we see his own “arrogant p****” moment just around the corner?

15. Kamala Harris will announce her candidacy for Governor of California

It’s the political port of call where she can have the most influence by leading the largest state in the country. In this way, she can also model an alternative to the White House. What’s more, it’s the obvious stepping stone if she believes she has a future in presidential politics: it proves she can win elections (albeit on hardly the hardest ground) and incentivises Democratic Californian donors and politicians to have her back. She’s from the state, she’s pretty good at threading between the urban progressives and more moderate types, there’d be a lot of love for her and Gavin Newsom is term-limited out. 

Happy New Year!