2020 brought surprises. So did the election. We all know the greatest hits. The National leadership became a lightning strike site; Labour landslid. Here are a few moments that rolled in under the radar, but made me gasp.
Amidst the results, a man of mystery caught my eye with over seven thousand votes in Port Waikato. Mark Ball. Who? Candidate for HeartlandNZ. What? Their Wikipedia article leaves a grim impression: opposition to emissions restrictions like even the Paris Agreement, bankrolled by a millionaire. Information was scarce. I could only find three articles of news, with two rural outlets coming up clutch.
Finding the party website finally dimmed my concerns. Their platform exemplifies the pro-farmer narrative in politics: happy to work on making things better, and irritated at not being trusted to do that. Ball had racked up so many votes with his former constituents, as ex-Mayor of Franklin.
The mystery was solved, though my concerns are not cancelled. This suggests that speaking out against our present consensus course of action on climate change still holds an audience, outside of Tories turning up to New Conservative and ACT meetings. I remain stunned that we came so close to an MP nobody expected sitting in the next Parliament.
The leaders’ debates, well, raised eyebrows. In the final debate, PM Ardern was asked: if she lost the election, would she lead Labour in opposition? Instantly, she answered “No”. The answer shocks: the Beehive without its buzziest bee? Whoever would lead Labour? Or us? The delivery astounds. She had clearly given the matter some thought. Did she hope to convince voters who can’t imagine life without her that, if they just Party Vote Labour, they won’t have to? If so, what an awfully high-risk gambit for a hypothetical reward, even in an election where the polls (correctly) suggested she was home safe. In three years’ time, risk and reward alike for the gambit will have risen.
What this implies is that her investment in politics is not infinite. She herself has suggested that she sees her mission as creating a kinder, gentler New Zealand. That may include a kinder, gentler life for her family. Clarke and her appear to be thriving off of public attention. That may be untrue, or they may tire. Finally, think of the legacy of her predecessor. John Key left at the peak of his power, and has gotten little flak then or since. Perhaps she hopes to cement the same approval in a post-Jacinda era.
This leads us to one more, startling conclusion. In 2022, or 2023, we may be greeted by a press conference, so on brand. Her last announcement as leader of the country. “I’ve done my dash. I’m moving on.” Somebody else can serve as Prime Minister and run Labour’s campaign for reelection. By cold political logic, this makes no sense. Can we say for sure that that is what drives her decisions? If John Key pulled a sneaky on us, why not Ardern?
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