Republicans plague US politics. Republicans said “No We Can’t” to Obama, and thumped his party. Republicans survived Trump. Republicans defeated Democrats yet again in 2020 outside the presidential race. One obstacle prevents their political dominance: their miscalibrated priorities. They held complete control of the federal government from 2017-19. What did they use that power for? The (failed) repeal of Obamacare, the only big step in federal healthcare in forty years, to raise profits for their corporate healthcare donors. Raising military spending and stripping two fifths of the tax burden on corporations. Forget any values of fiscal responsibility and prudence; forget the massive debt and enormous deficit. Most voters disapprove. Republicans lost the popular vote in seven of the past eight presidential elections.
What if somebody delivered the actual policies the people want? What if a Republican cast aside their corporate greed and pursued pure political power? I believe one person is capable of that achievement. Their name? Missouri Senator Joshua David Hawley.
He joined the Senate in 2019 as the youngest member. (Many voters have ranked youthfulness highly when praising politicians like Pete Buttigieg and AOC.) This dark horse sprang from cover by declaring he will force the Senate and House to debate Joe Biden’s victory on January 6th. All Republican Senators and Representatives must now choose between publicly abandoning Trump, or standing by him. Already, 11 more Senators (notably led by 2016 Republican presidential primary runner-up Ted Cruz) have joined that effort, while Mike Pence has signalled his approval. Fellow 2024 wannabe, Tom Cotton, has opposed the decision. Trump blasted him.
This division is terrible for those Senators forced into tough decisions, and Republican leadership is flaying Hawley...but it’s perfect for Hawley to ambush future competitors. He is more concerned about appealing to Republican voters who believe the fraud hoax than to his fellow politicians. Keep in mind that the first and second vote-getters in the 2016 Republican presidential primary were Donald Trump, an anti-establishment outsider, and Cruz, notoriously despised by his colleagues.
To explain Hawley’s appeal, let’s look to Twitter. Walmart’s account attacked his declaration. He responded, "Thanks @Walmart for your insulting condescension. Now that you've insulted 75 million Americans, will you at least apologize for using slave labor?" He followed that zinger up with, "Or maybe you'd like to apologize for the pathetic wages you pay your workers as you drive mom and pop stores out of business." This is not normal rhetoric for a Senator from a pro-business party. Republican politicians are typically free market faithful who praise big businesses like Walmart for creating jobs, accepting low wages as the price of employment, while remaining hush-hush on the destruction of small businesses. Out of context, besides the outrage-politics opening, you’d expect this from Sanders-AOC economic progressives.
Hawley serves on the frontlines of feuds with Big Tech, too. Section 230, a niche social media regulation, has blown up in importance. The provision was one of two chief causes of Trump's (overridden) veto of hundreds of billions of dollars of defense spending. 230 is an online, modern issue taking centre stage, reflecting that some 2024 hopefuls are adapting to present conditions instead of living in the past.
Hawley’s left-wing economic populism enables him to take unorthodox actions. Right now, he is cooperating with Bernie Sanders to obtain larger stimulus checks for people. That's good! If it means people living desperately on the edge can have some security, and some options to meet their bills again, then this is one deal you shake on with the devil.
Here's the problem. Working across the aisle with progressives can grant him alone a reputation for bipartisanship and cooperation. That has all but disappeared in Congress, and is worth its weight in gold to many voters and commentators. His past political intrigue, Republican affiliation, and evident ambitions suggest he doesn't care about other people. He abandons them when that suits his own interests.
His ideology steals the rug out from leftists. Right now, they are making their pitch within the Democratic Party that most Americans support their economics. Florida voted to reelect Trump while also approving a $15 minimum wage, a Democrat policy, by referendum. Scholar Lee Drutman found socially conservative and economically progressive voters backed Trump over Clinton. Hawley doubles down on Trump’s edge. He could break the back of the Democratic coalition by wooing away some economic leftists not repulsed by his social conservatism. Doing so deprives the remainder of a unique option for voters, undermining their efforts to take leadership within their own party.
What are the long term consequences if Hawley gets a presidential nomination, or shapes a platform? Republicans reap more votes and win more elections. They then implement their horrifying policies, such as restricting reproductive rights and empowering police to brutalise people even further. Economic populism also risks dangerous undertones, such as anti-immigrant scapegoating, and policies to kick them out and keep them out.
Democrats, meanwhile, will not sit idle and leave votes on the table. Losing leftists encourages Democrats to reach out even more to corporations, particularly pet favourites like Silicon Valley startups. They will also connect better with "socially liberal and fiscally conservative" suburban types. That means even more corporate support in a country that’s had quite enough of that. Populist Republicans will continue taking kickbacks while speaking out against corporate looting, just like Democrats do right now. They will not reform a thing. That creates a devilish, dispiriting choice for voters. Harm reduction will change from voting to the party that does less of the bad things, to choosing which harms - social or economic - are less unacceptable.
If Hawley is not nominated for President or Vice-President in a coming primary, before his youthful advantage disappears in a few cycles, then I was wrong. The odds are low; over a dozen people are considered 2024 Republican presidential possibilities, and the top four most likely people to be president in 2024 are probably Kamala Harris, Mike Pence, Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
The last of those people proved that you can personally fail, but indelibly impact the world. Thanks to him, Americans are increasingly aware they need to recognise and address a national history of anti-democratic authoritarianism. There’s less light on what Trumpopulism means for politics.
Hawley is the next step in the evolution of Trumpian messaging. Even if he fails, anyone with a platform can come up with this match between social conservatism and economic leftism. The voters will weigh in on whether that does it for them. In the meantime, I’m pushing my pundit’s chips in on the 47th President of the United States, Joshua D. Hawley.
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