Stuff made 21 political predictions for 2023. I’ve added my ratings in blue of their likelihood and followed up with some sweet, sweet rationale as to why. My next article will bring 12 predictions of my own. Let’s go!
My rating scale:
Certain - I’m willing to stake my reputation on this or be thoroughly mocked for it. e.g “no conspiracy theorist party will enter Parliament this year.”
Very likely - this is on track to happen, but there’s a serious chance it doesn’t. e.g “the Greens will remain in Parliament after the election.”
Likely - it’s more likely to happen than not, but still quite the coinflip. e.g “National will win the election.”
Unlikely - the inverse of that. e.g “NZFirst will return to Parliament.”
Very unlikely - the way things are shaking out I don’t think so, but I appreciate they have a case for why it might. “Te Pāti Māori will enter a coalition with National and ACT.”
No way - this is just ridiculous and shouldn’t be made as a prediction. e.g “ACT will fall out of Parliament.”
Without further ado, Stuff’s predictions and my responses!
Covid-19 will no longer play a meaningful role in politics for the first time since 2019. The consequences of Covid will continue to play out, but regardless of case numbers, the political train will have moved on. Certain. No significant political faction has an interest in dredging up COVID, a topic that has exhausted us all. No other country of importance to us has a major COVID crisis at the moment except for China, and even if we fail to stop their impact on our case numbers, the effects will be largely ignored.
At least one leader of a major political party will no longer be leader, or will have announced their exit, by the end of the year. Very likely. If Luxon loses, he might go voluntarily, or he might get blamed for the loss and rolled. If Ardern loses, she definitely leaves, though the announcement may happen later than this year. The other parties likely all stick with their leadership, but one major party must lose, and that plus the slight odds for minor parties (e.g after scandals) makes the odds of everybody sneaking through unscathed low.
Airfares will continue to be expensive and Air New Zealand’s fares, in particular, will become a political headache for the Government. No way. This is a strange prediction reflecting better-off concerns from people who frequently travel, especially those in business, journalism etc. Many more people are aggrieved by the cost of flights to go on holiday or see family, but this is not a top priority compared to the wider cost-of-living crisis. Crucially, New Zealanders don’t see aggressively controlling airfares as something the government does.
After a busy year of post-Covid travel, Jacinda Ardern will make a trip to China, being the first leader to do so since 2016 and the first since Xi Jinping has really started asserting his authority over the country. Unlikely. It’s election year. Who wants the optics of appearing next to a genocidal autocrat tightening his grip? This invites the political risk that some combination of revelations about human rights abuses, or renewed protests and crackdowns, emerge across China and particularly its subjugated regions (Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong) after the visit. Ardern wishes to maximise foreign engagement for political gain and to promote New Zealand’s interests, but the necessity of working with China can wait for after the election.
With the major three waters legislation shepherded through Parliament, Nanaia Mahuta will lose the local government portfolio in a cabinet reshuffle, but she will retain foreign affairs. Very likely. Three Waters is passed and the window for mistakes has mostly closed. However, the Opposition will continue to target Mahuta as a political liability. Labour is willing drop ministers like Poto Williams who become Opposition grindstones, and substitute in somebody who mollifies concerns (in this case, very likely Kieran McAnulty). On the other hand, Mahuta’s clout within the party combined with her faultless performance in foreign affairs should be enough to keep her on at that more major post. Such a plum position makes her likelier to accept losing a lesser portfolio like local government.
There will be a new political party in Parliament. Whether it is an NZ First comeback, TOP, New Conservatives or another party, the times seem right for a political disrupter to come to the people’s house. This is extremely rare in New Zealand politics and tough to do, but 2023 could just be the year. Unlikely. Despite their largely different voter bases and competing agendas, Stuff is right that this is a restive anti-status quo year. It’s precisely that environment which provides shaky ground on which to build a coalition of 5% and get over the MMP threshold, because the vote for change is so split. ACT has been extremely effective at hoovering up right-wingers who might swing for NZ First or the New Conservatives. However, do note that TOP’s leader Raf Manji has come second in wealthy blue electorate Ilam before, and has a real shot at getting the Opportunities Party in on his coattails through a three-way race.
There will be another sizeable anti-government/vaccine type protest out the front of Parliament, although it will last only for a day. Very unlikely. Urban Wellington is not a big source of conspiracy theorists. Any protestors coming from further out are disproportionately more disenfranchised, and therefore more disconnected from day-to-day demands like 9-to-5 jobs and looking after fixed housing. Accordingly, either they’re going to make it worth their while and stay for a while, or, more probably, they’re not organised enough to be coming at all. Many are still riled up, but the moment has passed.
The Māori Party will win two electorates: Rawai Waititi’s current seat of Waiariki and the seat of Te Tai Hauāuru, which Speaker of the House and MP since 2014 Adrian Rurawhe is not expected to recontest. The party will bring in at least one other MP from its list. Very likely. I don’t know the Māori seats well, but the Māori Party polls well enough to achieve this. The impressive message discipline and social media prowess of their current MPs, combined with the party machine behind them, suggests that they will continue to put up strong candidates, against a struggling Labour Party.
Ayesha Verrall will become the health minister, while the overworked and underrated Andrew Little will be moved on to other portfolios as part of the reshuffle at the start of the year. Very likely. Labour ought to move up younger, fresher faces, and has a lot of fires raging on and only a few seasoned, competent hands to fight them with. They can only do the latter with Little if they give in to the incentive the former provides, bopping two birds with one stone.
Transport Minister Michael Wood will be compelled to write Auckland a big cheque for light rail in the face of Mayor Wayne Brown's refusal to pay for the current plan, or the plan will be changed, yet again. Do you think I know a thing about Auckland light rail? But this invokes Wayne Brown’s intransigence, which leads me to believe it’s very likely.
Labour MPs Deborah Russell, Barbara Edmonds and Duncan Webb will all be promoted into Ardern’s ministry. Likely; I know nothing about Russell, but Edmonds gets rave reviews from within Parliament and I love Duncan Webb. A bit of wishcasting, perhaps, but once again it must be said that the incentive for renewal so as to pull ahead in the election and prepare for a third term is strong.
More Labour Cabinet ministers will announce their retirement before the general election. Very likely. Labour looks like it is going to lose. A lot of these MPs have been around for 15 years or longer now. Between their fatigue and the memories of the horrific 2010-2014 years, they’ll want to move on with their lives. The alternative is likely reliving that just for the chance to maybe get back into government, probably in another six or nine years’ time, even after their inadequacies have generally been exposed.
When the Green Party holds its AGM and the co-leadership positions fall vacant current co-leader James Shaw will be re-elected without any fuss, unlike this year. Marama Davidson will remain leader. Likely. 2022’s AGM was an embarrassment and there’s no clear contender lining up Shaw in their sights. However, other Green MPs are willing to consider it. Swarbrick is an obvious option. There’s no reliably predicting what a membership anguished over society-wide and planet-wide crisis might do, especially when a minority can filibuster the leadership under a party constitution meant to foster compromise and bipartisanship.
New Zealand will go into recession, however it won’t officially be a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth – until after the election. Likely. I’m not an economics wonk, I just took the subject in high school, so I can’t analyse this in depth. A recession sooner or later is likely; this is just flipping a coin on whether the effect of interest rates and deflationary expectations arrive sooner (which figures like Boxing Day sales warn against) or later.
Inflation – as measured through the Consumer Price Index – won’t fall below 6.5% prior to the election. But the Reserve Bank won’t need to ratchet up interest rates any higher than its currently predicted high water mark of 5.5%, and Adrian Orr and the bank’s monetary policy committee may be able to stop south of that. Very unlikely. This seems like a strange pair of predictions: inflation will remain brutally high, but Adrian Orr’s Reserve Bank will show restraint against a persistent threat. Overseas pressures suggest to me inflation will probably remain that high. There’s a good chance that, however futilely, Adrian Orr is willing to do whatever it takes to try to challenge its ascendancy. Still, 5.5% is awfully high by the standards of the past couple decades.
Te Whatu Ora's Health New Zealand's backlog of elective surgeries will remain and even blow out further, from about 5.2 months of extra work estimated in October. I’m not a doctor, just a gal scared by how long some waitlists can get in this country. Tell me a public service is failing and I’ll believe you. Likely.
The drop in house prices will stabilise by the middle of the year. Very likely. So many factors drive house prices up. The government’s changes have not been followed up by even any further tinkering. They are very unlikely to get serious about tackling them in an election year. Expectations will dissipate that the market is seriously correcting.
A potential 4 year-term for parliament will become the subject of more serious debate and perhaps a campaign in the coming year. No way. Why this would be the case is unclear. There are more than enough tangible issues with cost of living, public services, and other perennial crises like climate change for people to fixate onto without introducing constitutional reform into the mix. The mood for change in the air surely weighs against holding politicians accountable less often. People are thoroughly fatigued from the past few years. I wouldn’t count it out that they want to see elections less often. Then again, the last election was hardly a competition at all, so maybe it doesn’t count in the minds of most.
Jacinda Ardern will continue to be preferred prime minister in public polls up until the election. Very likely. Ardern is cautious, consistent, and remains a strength of the party. Luxon appears in over his head and has not created an attractive personal brand. To an extent this is reflective of wider polling trends, but there are enough swing voters who will turn to National, yet who still respect or like Ardern.
Regardless of whether Labour forms Government after the election, at least 18 of its MPs will lose their jobs. Very likely. For context, Labour won 65 MPs at the last election, and has lost Gaurav Sharma, meaning they can win 48 MPs this time around and still fulfil this prediction. By current polling they’ll have a few less than that, and there’s the chance an outsider party breaks in, further diluting their share. They’d need another COVID-like crisis or another National implosion to climb significantly from here.
With the FIFA Women’s World Cup – co-hosted by New Zealand finishing in late August, and the Men’s Rugby World Cup finishing on October 28 in France, the general election will be held on the second or fourth Saturday of November. Unlikely. At a time of fear and loathing for the Labour Party, they will stick to taboos and traditions around the importance of sporting events to New Zealand politics, and try not to intrude on them. Still, these are just two dates amongst various other options, so I’m not weighting them that highly.
Have a think for yourself and look forward towards the year ahead!
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