Reviewing My Predictions For 2025

It’s time to assess the successes and failures of project 2025.

1. A party will change leader. 

“The most likely option is a combination of Luxon continuing to perform poorly, a series of government competence issues, and National’s polling position looking dodgy for the next election, at which point the knives could come out for somebody more electable.” 

At every step of the way I had the preconditions right, and yet the alleged Bishop coup didn’t come close to the needed numbers. With Labour on the upswing Hipkins was in no danger. Surprisingly, the only other rumoured attempt to change leadership was within TPM, and as it stands Ngarewa-Packer and Waititi enjoy the upper hand - though those hands are shaking. 0 / 1.

2. A serious incident occurs with a ferry (e.g a casualty or a violent collision)

Thankfully nothing of the sort. Yet. 0 / 2.

3. The Labour Party will announce their support for some new form of taxation intended to reduce inequality, most likely a capital gains tax.

Dead right and I correctly identified “CGT as more plausible than a wealth tax because, although this takes longer to kick in and will affect far more people, it’s also a clearer case of an easy-to-close loophole that will bring economic benefits”. (In fairness, its detractors continue to argue it’ll be too complex to administer well.) The only issue here is that they’ve picked such a narrow CGT that it doesn’t answer questions of how they can afford to fulfill more promises than this government has. 1 / 3.

4. TOP disbands

Opportunity, as it turns out, have at least one more go in the tank. If, as I expect, they put up their weakest result yet, after refreshing the entire look of the party with a brand new leader, then this might really be curtains for them. 1 / 4.

5. The Greens will lose another MP

Unfortunately correct. Benjamin Doyle was harassed and threatened all the way out of Parliament. And still, nobody in our political class seems particularly interested in the question of how to lower the temperature. 2 / 5.  

6. Keir Starmer’s approval rating will not rebound

Hahahaha got him spot on. Starmer is now the most unpopular British Prime Minister in polling history. And as I pointed out, Kemi Badenoch, Conservative Leader of the Opposition wasn’t going to be the one posing a threat. Instead, it’s the far-right Reform on the march across the motu. Starmer is rapidly running out of time to turn the ship around. 3 / 6.

7. Peace will descend upon the Middle East, excepting Yemen

War is over. While there are ongoing breaches of the ceasefire in Gaza and massacres in Syria, the sad reality is that it has been many years since such low-level violence was absent from all the Middle East. I’m ready to declare the region at a - very shaky - peace. Except Yemen. 4 / 7.

8.  A CDU/CSU-SDP-FDP “Germany” coalition will form

I sure did anticipate the right bloc winning the election, but the Free Democratic Party put up such a humiliating performance as to get knocked out of the Bundestag entirely. That just left the Grand Coalition to reforge once more. 4.5 / 8.

9.  All mayors of the major cities (by my arbitrary metric, Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin) will be reelected.

Paula Southgate chose not to run for reelection, although I doubt she would have faced major difficulties, but Jules Radich was tossed into fourth place. Phil Mauger and Wayne Brown did coast safely back in. But Tory Whanau was the biggest miss of all - having to abandon thoughts of reelection and even losing her run for a lower office. I got two out of five right and emerge from this at 4.9 / 9.

10. Trump tariffs will significantly harm the American economy

Yes! It’s getting bad over there! Most states have fallen into recession, the agricultural sector is getting wrecked, and inflation keeps on keeping on! If you need evidence, look no further than Trump himself frequently signing tariff reductions this year to mitigate the economic harm done by his own hand. 5.9 / 10. 

11. Mike Johnson will be ejected as Speaker of the House

He’s still around, although the Epstein files showed that even a handful of rebels within his camp can push him. 5.9 / 11.

12. Justin Trudeau will leave office

Even despite the rise of Trump tariffs buoying his image, there were too many years of baggage accumulated for him to look like he had a good chance of winning yete another term. He was indeed pressured out in favour of Mark Carney. 6.9 / 12.

13. A massive FIFA scandal will erupt

Having made it through most of the year, they decided to give Donald Trump the Peace Prize. Lol. But it wasn’t covered as or responded to by most people as a mega-scandal, so I’m only giving myself half points, bringing me up to 7.4 / 13.

14. David Seymour will have a public outburst

Hasn’t happened yet, but I continue to sense that his patience is wearing thin. 7.4 / 14.

15. Kamala Harris will announce her candidacy for Governor of California

She ruled it out and appears to be eyeing up a second bid for President. Instead, the Governor’s race is a mess without a clear front runner, and there’s potentially even a chance of a worst-case scenario where two Republicans get through to the next round. 7.4 / 15.  

By the barest of margins, I fall under 50%, am denied passing grade, and retreat to prepare for next year.