Reviewing My 2024 Predictions

As we close out on 2024, a look back at what I thought would happen this year.

1. This year will be portrayed by media and analysis as a “Year of the Voter”, “A Turning Point for Democracy” or a similarly election-related sentiment, even though the outcomes of the elections will not point to a conclusive direction for the world by New Years’ Eve

Half-right. This was not the narrative that dominated the year. Instead, what really baked in was how torrential the anti-incumbent wave building over prior years became as it swept the globe. This wasn’t a magical 365 days for turnout or for the power of liberal democracy. Instead, it was the time that all the voters of the world collectively woke up and decided to change their governments. 0.5/1.

2. ACT fades hard into the background

Dead wrong. I thought NZFirst would be the loudest culture warriors, but they took no interest in the Treaty Principles Bill. That left ACT to weaponise the entire issue as the signature political event of the year. The government is frequently described as practising the most right-wing economics in a generation, a headline you wouldn’t expect if we just got a National-NZF government. It’s ACT announcing a minimum wage cut in real terms (much as I dislike this kind of technical finagling), and ACT setting up charter schools. Polling shows they are at least holding steady. This is not a year of ACT’s obscurity, but of perhaps their greatest notoriety yet. 0.5/2.

3. The Haley surge will stall and crumple and Trump will sweep every state

Technically incorrect - Haley did win Vermont and D.C., in the end, some of the most liberal states in the country - but if you look through the details below the original prediction, I was basically right on how it all played out. Yes, DeSantis and Haley kept ripping at each other. No, Christie didn’t stay in the race, but, yes, “Ramaswamy has become irrelevant and will most likely drop out right after Iowa votes” was exactly correct down to the day. Trump won the primaries and it was so not close that, even where he wasn’t on the ballot in Nevada, Haley lost to “None of the above”. Giving myself half a point to climb to 1/3.

4. Labour will face talk of existential failure

Nope! The troubles of the government have been the focus of the political news cycle. Labour have stayed quiet, avoiding divisive policy announcements, and keeping their caucus in line. As a result, they have actually risen in the polls - even as the Greens and especially TPM stay high by chewing off Labour’s left flank, Labour is itself worming back into the centre ground peeling off National and NZFirst. I don’t believe this would hold if an election was called tomorrow: people are registering support for them as an alternative to the government, not because they are scrutinising Labour and evaluating how well they would suit as a government. Nonetheless, by showing a united front with the Greens and the Māori Party, they have avoided the perception of sharks circling in the water. At least I was right when I added that this narrative wouldn’t play out in reality - “Labour will probably never fall below 23%.” That caveat, which I noted even at the time was a softball, nets me half a point to reach 1.5/4.

5. Venezuela will invade Guyana

No. Didn’t happen. Though military garrisons near the border have built up, and the Venezuelan Parliament now claims Essequibo as a state, nothing more has played out. Yet. Watch me give myself half a point when this actually happens in, like, 2028. 1.5/5.

6. Something dark (e.g corruption, serious misconduct) will emerge or have visible consequences for NZ politics, even if it didn’t happen this year

The worst we got was Commerce Minister Andrew Bayly being sloshed on the job and rude to members of the public. Nothingburgers abound, and though I’ve allowed myself a few caveats already, to count the great swirling dark nexus of 2024 NZ politics - the state of the state abuse in care inquiry - would be like patting myself on the back for predicting in 1963 that segregation would emerge across America the following year. 1.5/6.

7. There will be no free trade agreement with India, before or after their election

Correct. A predictable blow to Luxon’s narrative of the self as the master negotiator. The left aren’t going to hound him on this due to their own schisms on trade. Nonetheless, this is a straight up example of the Prime Minister overpromising and underdelivering economic growth in a wasted year. Clearly a promise he never should have made. 2.5/7.

8. Europe is wracked by a surge in the anti-immigration movement, seriously impacting Labour’s victory in the British election

Completely correct! For a time, it was feared Le Pen’s National Rally would take power in France. Nigel Farage’s Reform Party annihilated the Tories and drove them further to the right, with Labour getting in on the anti-immigrant action. Across the continent, hostility to immigrants has picked up into a howling fury not seen since the mid-2010s crisis. We are likely to see the pinnacle of this when the extremist parties win around a third of all votes cast in the German election next year. Somebody should do a writeup about that. 3.5/8.

9. Precisely two leadership positions of New Zealand’s major political parties (i.e in Parliament) will change

Luxon, Peters, Seymour, Ngarewa-Packer and Waititi indeed all remained through the year as I guaranteed, and I was right to go against the grain and pick Hipkins to remain. Though I was wrong to assume aggression against the government would hurt him; Labour have felt comfortable putting down the government without fearing the fingers pointed at them in return for the past few years. It’s the Greens I was looking at, and instead of my prediction, the most plausible outcome happened; Shaw finally retired as I thought, and though Davidson unexpectedly came down with an unfortunate diagnosis of cancer, she remains committed to the party assuming she succeeds in the struggle. So, only one leader changed in NZ, which means half a point for me . 4/9.

10. An active, major political figure dies

I was gonna say I got this wrong, but I heard out a case and reversed my course. Between Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leadership of Middle Eastern terrorist organisations fell like flies. While I might not consider that significant enough to merit a point most years - after all, the deaths of ISIS leaders mattered little for the history books - given that the global focus this year has been on Israel’s wars in the Middle East (along with Ukraine), their deaths collectively amount to representing a significant shift in the region. 5/10.

11.  Any of Brooke Van Velden, Simeon Brown, Paul Goldsmith, Louise Upston, Todd McClay, Casey Costello or Andrew Bayly prove to be weak points: they face scandals, are deemed incompetent or politically toxic, or even draw nearer to being sacked

Oh lol I talked about Andrew Bayly already. He has indeed proven to be weak and grown closer to being sacked - one more drunken public incident would likely do him in, not because National cares a ton about a bit of rudeness but because a minister drunk on the job all the time can’t be trusted to do the job right. (And they’d best have a replacement locked and loaded. If the New Zealand National Party seriously can’t find another single person with an understanding of business to take up minor portfolios, what are we even doing here?)

Let’s go through the rest of them: BVV has had a good year hammering out economic policies with no faults, and is more clearly than ever positioned as ACT’s future leader, a remarkable feat for a young, liberal former Greenie. Simeon Brown, besides being bête noire to the left, is also quietly drawing serious fire from within several safe National electorates, which you can read about here. Goldsmith and Upston have had calm years. McClay has the India trade deal on his desk - or, rather, he doesn’t. And Casey Costello has been the face of the tobacco industry, a terrible look that has particularly rankled in Māoridom. I’m happy with my hit rate in nailing three separate problem people, even if I didn’t pick the two sackings this year (Melissa Lee and Penny Simmonds) and went in too hard on Paul Goldsmith when he ended up being the cleanup man. 6/11.

12. In a boring rerun, Trump wins

You might say it wasn’t boring! Kamala Harris injected lots of life into the campaign! For a bit, then it settled down into a largely non-interactive pattern again. Reams of ink have been spilt, and are yet to be spilt, dissecting this election, but I really don’t think it’s that complicated. This election wasn’t much about Trump at all. Voters hated inflation and immigrants. That’s it. Kamala Harris helped the Democrats to save some Congressional seats, but her improvement was not enough to overcome the big issues seen under the Biden administration. Could you argue a better conducted campaign would have made the difference in such a close election (don’t believe the narrative, if you look at the swing state numbers it was close)? Sure! But we didn’t see that. We saw the fundamentals go head to head, and thanks to them, Trump won. 7/12.

13. NZFirst goes the whole year without a single reprimand from Luxon

Not once!! 8/13.

14. Luxon doesn’t grow into role and impress  

Absolutely right. He has been panned so much that he has faced more speculation about being replaced by his own party than Chris Hipkins. How do you even manage that? Imagine John Key facing more leadership speculation than Phil Goff in 2009. That’s just unbelievable, the year after he dealt Labour a crushing defeat. It’s so baffling that people are left to resort to speculation that he doesn’t actually want to be here anymore, and would kindly like to pack off soon enough.

The government doesn’t face major ideological divisions outside the Treaty Principles Bill. There’s no international crisis. The economy and the government each are in the doldrums, not the Marianas Trench…but he just sucks as a communicator, he’s not getting stuff done, and he’s not connecting on a personal level with people. What does he possibly offer as Prime Minister that some of National’s senior figures can’t? He’s a default figure, and he needs to shape up, because at this rate, John Key 2.0 is no John Key and not destined to last eight years. 9/14.

15. Across the entire year, what National’s governing agenda is will remain unclear beyond austerity and roads

And it logically follows from above that Luxon and his team have failed to set big picture aspirations. No social issues or international positions have been staked out as important to this government. The health system is a top issue with no clarity from the government. Education has probably been their strongest suit, but phone bans, basics and charter schools are pieces that do not together tell a complete story just yet. Crime has receded in the public eye even if it’s not out of view entirely, with no signature achievements from National on this front. And the water has been muddied heavily by the Treaty Principles Bill and weird diversions like huge tax cuts for landlords. No, it’s been all about firing public servants, tightening belts, and Simeon Brown getting those roads built and cycleways brought down. 10/15.

Throwing myself some softballs paid off in the end! Coming out of the year getting two thirds of my predictions right is something I’m pretty pleased with. 2025 will be a harder year to predict, I’m sure, but that only challenges me to get creative with what insights I can offer on the year to come. It looks to be a year for rebounding as the first half of the decade comes to a close. It better be; we’ve seen what happens when governments are seen to stand by as trouble bubbles.