The 2020 Democratic presidential primary (i.e the state-by-state votes to determine who would end up running against Donald Trump) met a miserable conclusion - the Biden Super Tuesday sweep into COVID-19. Entirely in spite of that, I had a blast tracking the process. I mean no disrespect to all those affected by decisions of monumental importance flowing from the USA. We all know so frequently those decisions are made for such just plain bad reasons, and by so many bad actors up in power on high. What is there left to do but point and laugh at the biggest reality TV spectacle in the world?
This time around nothing exciting is going on on the Democratic side: assuming Joe Biden’s health holds, he is on trajectory to be renominated without any serious opposition. About the only bump in the road you can really postulate is that RFK Jr. may combine enough anti-vax diehards with low-information voters who see the name and nothing else to create some disturbance in New Hampshire, but that’s about it.
So, instead, we turn to the red barons of the Republican Party. Morally bankrupt to a soul, I don’t intend to weigh up who would be less worse to see win. Instead, we’re putting on the amoral analysis hat and looking at their chances. They’ll be organised in order of least to most likely to win, giving us a view in hindsight from this point in time. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s official entry into the race signals the proper beginning of open competition.
I’ve included potential candidates whose names have been bandied about, while ignoring those who have ruled themselves out. Now, we know the couple names who are almost certainly going to win this whole thing, but that’s boring to ignore the rest. Better to pretend like this is a real contest, so I’m going to give each of them the following: a comparison to a past presidential contest, some weaknesses they ought to shore up, and strategy recommendations on how to have a shot at this thing in their best-case scenario.
Before getting into the individual candidates, let’s frame where each of them sits within the party’s wings with this handy dandy image:
In our top left corner, the culture warriors are all in on the Trumpian style of grievance, picking fights, relitigating 2020 and January 6, and generally in need of a lie down and some soft music. The establishment candidates don’t necessarily belong fully to the corridors of Congress, but their path runs through winning over party elites like donors and otherwise demonstrating the value of their experience and the normalcy of their governing approach. The evangelicals are fairly self-explanatory, with an emphasis on their faith and kowtowing to Christian nationalism. Optimists are the opposite of the aggrieved warriors, preferring to paint a picture of a kinder, gentler future and take a more lowkey personal approach, often involving a vision of generational change.
Finally, moderates don’t exist anymore. This category also reflects unwanted perceptions: candidates of colour in the GOP will generally be greeted with assumptions that they aren’t exactly diehard card-carriers of the Klan. Which I guess passes for excessive moderation in pursuit of justice these days. With that all cleared up, bring out the candidates!
The Nobodys
Mike Rogers
Most similar to: Frank Church
Having planned out my writings about these candidates in reverse order, I could only say by the end: the nightmares. They’re finally over. Mike Rogers is well and truly a nobody to the public - look him up and he’s not even the first result amongst Congressman by his name. Moreover, while the 2020 Democratic primary which didn't really conclusively evaluate the odds of also-ran businessmen, radio personalities etc., we pretty conclusively tested and found that random Congressmen go nowhere. He hasn’t even been one since he dropped the job a decade ago to take up talk radio, though in all honesty that may help him in ways.
Strategically, he might as well run for Nevada (fourth in the order of the first four primary states) on nothing more the grounds that it’ll be nobody else’s focus. He should be the generic Republican that, curiously enough, doesn’t really exist in this race. The 2020 Democratic primary was packed with them; here, the top couple tiers are made up of a hodgepodge of Trumpians and more diverse characters, neither of whom really strike you as the default politician.
If by some miraculous chance the frontrunners collapse, he can be the alternative to even more unknown quantities. With past experience in intelligence, he can play to both sides of surveillance as an issue as the situation demands. Got a wave of crime or riots? Go full 1984. Got some government coverup in the making? Accuse Biden of Big Brother tactics. Really, this is the best he’s getting. Moving on swiftly.
Larry Elder
Most similar to: Alan Keyes
“A woman who demands further gun control legislation is like a chicken who roots for Colonel Sanders”. He says wacky stuff all the time, he faces allegations of improper conduct he denies…like, I really strove to find a deeper comparison here about him being a military brat or something, but nah, there’s not much to it. He’s one of a hundred presidential candidates who have just spouted off with deeply conservative takes, that happen in their case to come in large parts from critiques of the “good” versus “bad” black family.
Strategically, a candidate from California may as well run with focus on Nevada; you can pop over all the time and share a similar geographical background. As for how to win? Just lie! You’re good at saying stuff that ain’t so, so make it official! Suck the media in as having to “fact check” you! Get compared to Trump! The kinds of voters you’re targeting won’t have kept up with the news much - just claim you practically won control of California! If you can win there, you can win anywhere! Use your identity to say the most incomprehensibly inaccurate things about black communities to white audiences and see if they lap it up! So long as I’m giving amoral advice, in this case it may as well be “commit to the bit”.
Ryan Binkley
Most similar to: Pat Robertson
Oh god. Oh, god, there are so many of these random guys. Like so many of them this dude will just have zero name recognition, and to add onto that he’s approaching all this with a surprisingly moderate tack for a Republican primary, talking up virtues like bipartisanship. Yet more demonstration of how much of a fantasy any hopes from most of these candidates are.
Strategically, he knows what he’s doing: he is gunning for Iowa’s evangelicals. In my view, you want to run this as a more explicitly religious than political campaign. You want the people who centre their faith first and their Christian nationalism second - the Christian nationalists first will already have been engaged with other candidates for years. Be ready to be the powerbroker to engage your voters with the process for the other candidates, because you’re not winning this - you’re here to try to give a boost to kinder, gentler alternatives.
Perry Johnson
Most similar to: Herman Cain
And now we come to the last of the nobodies, though there’ll be more at this rate whose entry I can’t predict. It doesn’t matter - they have no hope. Name recognition is just so critical to get anywhere, and anybody at this stage delusional enough to think they have a shot does not have the pedal-to-the-metal ability to go all-out on getting the attention they need.
Strategically, Johnson ought to focus in on a more fiscally minded state like New Hampshire. He’s fixated on fiscal issues that may seem more abstract at the moment, and so he needs to make those impacts feel immediate to people. One is the usual laundry list of changes on inflation, gas et cetera, but the other? The debt. The. Debt. Specifically, scaremonger about the debt ceiling as the negotiations go on, and that disaster is coming in 2024 or otherwise soon even if all goes well. Revive the Tea Party torch lambasting your own party for not taking the debt seriously and get on that debate stage. Evoke the good old days of business being done right, too, and you have plenty of nativist sentiment to draw on.
The Minnows
John Bolton
Most similar to: Lindsey Graham
Christ, this is desperate. We’re at the people who an observer of American politics would know of, but whose motives for potentially running for president remain largely mysterious. What’s this one’s weakness? He’s JOHN BOLTON. Nobody stands more at the outlandish extreme of the overreaches of the Bush era that Trump’s GOP was refounded on moving past.
Strategically, a policy hand like Bolton ought to focus on a state like New Hampshire with more of an audience for wonky discussions of the world. Sure, you could just try to make the case for an interventionist foreign policy, but if I’m going to advise on the chances of becoming President, it only happens if we’re plunging into WWIII and the US needs somebody with experience and passion in this department. In the meantime, spread those apocalyptic fears about Trump’s fingers resting on the nuclear button to scrape together some doomsday preppers and get onto that debate stage.
Doug Burgum
Most similar to: Rick Perry
What do you want me to say? He’s the Governor of North Dakota, he wants to go talk about energy. Sure, it’s an interesting angle in this day and age, have fun. Run in Iowa, make some new friends, and again try to present yourself as that “generic Republican” to fill the void and talk about really everyday issues like the economy. In addition, these older candidates probably benefit more from picking fights with Trump; if he’s the guy you’re being compared to, rather than a DeSantis or the like, people are less likely to identify your age as a distinct factor against you.
Liz Cheney
Most similar to: Jeb Bush
Liz Cheney is the new Jeb Bush - associated with the bad old days by name as well as ideology, and despite being a staunch conservative, on the outs with the party due to being resolutely against Trump. She will never win the primary, but since she’s already been ousted as Wyoming’s Representative, why not go ahead and criticise the brick wall? Who knows, maybe you even stay in the race until voting starts if you’re feeling excitable.
If she’s really going to do this, she may as well go into Nevada, and lean from being out west. Complain about the country leaving you all behind. Make yourself a protest vote only, redefining every issue away from your competence and towards criticising Trump and his hold on the party. However, elevate substantial policy alternatives. You’re a Cheney and there’s no changing that, so demonstrate how compassionate conservatism might gel best with the modern GOP.
Chris Sununu
Most similar to: Bill Weld
Sununu demonstrates aptly a classic dilemma of American politics. As a reasonably standard, competent Northeastern moderate governor, he should be a prime candidate for the party to maximise their vote total and open up new battlegrounds. Hailing from New Hampshire, the voters of his state ought to know him best and, accordingly, prioritise him over distant and unreliable alternatives. Instead, the GOP will never elect somebody who doesn’t follow orthodox on issues like abortion wrongs.
Needless to say, any Sununu run must focus on New Hampshire. Draw on your power base within the state from all your experience, and point to how you can spread that to America at large. Fearmonger about the disaster that’s coming if the Republicans get slaughtered at the election, and register yourself as a protest vote. Encourage independents and Democrats into the tent, too. Maybe then you can scrape together enough not to be embarrassed - or at least to pass on to a moderate alternative with a chance.
Chris Christie
Most similar to: Newt Gingrich
Christie is the ultimate loose cannon. In his heyday, around the 2010 rise of the Tea Party, he looked like a striking model for how scrappy Republicans could get elected even in blue states like his New Jersey. Stewing in frustration over the 2012 presidential election, Republicans turned on him as too bipartisan and moderate, lending aid and comfort to the enemy. Bridgegate’s fallout in 2013 cemented the end of any chance that he’d become President…and yet he ran anyway in 2016. His brash Northeaster style was eclipsed by Trump, and instead of victory, his campaign came to be defined by one of the most comical and cinematic moments in political debate history, with enormous and unintended consequences. It has to be seen to be believed.
Christie, you gotta try to recreate some of that movie magic. Get back in and be the proto-Trump of the race again - but this time pick your fights solely with the big man himself. Don’t be the one to kneecap a would-be chief rival - be the one to help bring down Trump. Pick every fight you can and make people root for you to get on that debate stage, then pick some more fights. Attaboy. God, I hope he runs.
Speaking of fallen angels…
Marco Rubio
Most similar to: Simon Bridges Richard Nixon
Both rose as footsoldiers for their party’s new, harder edge in the big sunshine states, only to end up distrusted by the right wing. Both men were coopted as the youthful, rising stars of the establishment, only to find its support lacking when push came to shove. Both were exposed as unrelatable and robotic on the debate stage by charging Northeasters far more comfortable in their own skin. The New Nixon came back. Can Rubio too?
Strategically, any Rubio campaign would have to run through New Hampshire.. You gotta be able to show the reinvented Rubio and challenge any past perceptions. Tell your whole story and make yourself of interest to the media as a property once discarded for failings, who has now turned into a living redemptive proof of the American dream. Done this way, any successes of yours get more credence than they normally would. Contest the title of Florida Man with Trump and DeSantis, who are so similar on so many issues, and show how you’re superior to both. Go get em, champ.
Kristi Noem
Most similar to: Sarah Palin
Look, normally I’m pretty resistant to making lazy “like to like” comparisons when there are others if you dig a little deeper. In this case, it’s just about being what the audience wants to see. Run for Iowa, dominate the market there as the candidate who is actually out from the farms in the middle of nowhere, and retread that Sarah Palin playbook. Pick up the substantial policy ideas behind that to demonstrate you’ve got what it takes when the inevitable scrutiny arrives, and dismiss any idea that you’re ending up as a VP - even if you want that, people who already buy into the hype love to see all-or-nothing game show style commitment.
Greg Abbott
Most similar to: Mitch Daniels
Abbott is the closest thing this race would have to a generic Republican; further up, they’re all strange for one reason or another. He may be sixty five and a bit generic, but he would be bound to have a strong life story to tell if he wants to go there, and Texas is automatically a huge power base to operate out of. A campaign of his ought to focus on South Carolina and lean into “Southern pride”, and issues like fighting immigration and crime associated with the southern border.
The Minors
Tucker Carlson
Most similar to: Pat Buchanan
The fact that stranger things have happened hardly makes this any more plausible, but Tucker’s fired, he’s free, what else is there to do but run? Though, like most candidates this low, he’s deeply unlikely to, he’d be bringing immediate attention - both from the millions who followed him until recently, and from the media who love nothing more than to talk about the media. Of course, this all depends on whether he has any credibility after being exposed as a buffoon. Not to mention the total lack of political experience, and a style that predisposes him towards simple, empty soundbites.
Strategically, Carlson can probably look for an in in an Iowa or a Nevada, but the location is not so important as the message: the full, unadulterated populist send. He needs to lock down that share of the voter base who bother to tune into what he keeps on yapping about in order to get him to that debate stage, where he can work his television skills. Focus your fire on the Democrats and ignore other Republicans: they’re not soft targets, the liberats are.
Glenn Youngkin
Most similar to: Gary Hart
Trump’s rise in the 2016 Republican presidential primary inaugurated an era of uphill political battles for the GOP. Youngkin blazed a new trail in his 2021 takeover of the Virginia governor’s mansion: combining a lowkey demeanour and a focus on the cost of living with culture war issues in fields like education to take back a new blue stronghold. He’s only governed for a little while and his presentation may not be what most MAGAheads are looking for right now, but seeing as he’s term limited out why not give the White House a crack?
Strategically, a candidate like Youngkin with more resources to hand can probably weigh up various options between which of Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina suits best. Make education your wheelhouse, and speak to families first and foremost as the voter base you’re looking for. Be a calming, well-liked influence in the race who people feel willing to take a chance on if they’re tired of messy infighting between the frontrunners. And show donors you can walk and chew gum at the same time. I don’t know what that means, but it was in my notes, so it must be important.
Asa Hutchinson
Most similar to: Dick Gephardt
Sometimes you get a generic party candidate who is totally in the tradition of where the party once was, who just runs way too late. Well, welcome, Asa, 72 year old that you are. Go to New Hampshire, appeal to the older generation on the way things were done back in your day, and hone in on experience as the critical factor. It’s an unlikely sell, but it’s the only thing you’ve really got going for you. Make this a contest between you and Trump, and suddenly aged experience versus aged cluelessness doesn’t look so bad. How do you do that? No clue, moving on.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Most similar to: Andrew Yang
The primary has had too little time for much to happen so far, besides the general Trump-up DeSantis-down trend I don’t put too much stock in. The only other real movement we’ve seen is Ramaswamy steadily trending up, thanks to nailing the basics a lot of campaigns seem to miss: a likeable candidate, a clear message and a keenness on accepting every media opportunity possible.
With his war on woke, Ramaswamy needs to make Iowa his market, and corner his share of it. There’s lots of competitors in this space, but he can specifically appeal to young, militant conservatives. Besides being a useful pool to draw activists from, a fanbase like that can get him onto the debate stage to spread awareness about himself as a fresh new commodity. Finally, Ramaswamy loves to take a lot of hard-right policy stances; identify one signature policy akin to Yang’s UBI that you want to fixate on as what your peeps should rally around.
The Majors
Nikki Haley
Most similar to:
For all the many complexities of Nikki Haley’s life and career that I won’t delve into here, it’s actually quite simple. She faces weaknesses - she’s the ultimate flip flopper and a bit of a bridge burner, and those facts are easily overexaggerated as sexist tropes alongside the presumption she’s far more moderate than she is.
Accordingly, then, run with that moderation. Go to New Hampshire and around South Carolina, and go all out on that electability argument. I don’t think it’s the winning one in this primary but that’s your strength, as perhaps the single strongest general election candidate, and you need to play to it. Whatever else you might say, voters genuinely love to see a girlboss winning, and if you’re just having a good time and sticking it to Joe Biden you can really build some momentum.
The important thing is to avoid the pitfalls of the kinds of coverage that tend to dog female presidential candidates, and have the plans and positions ready for when you come under scrutiny to prove you can back up your fighting words. These policies should still be moderate, but don’t take it overboard - moderate by a Republican standard, not genuinely moderate. Commit to the bit and pray this ends up being what the voters are looking for, particularly if the economy recovers quickly and Biden soars in the polls accordingly.
Mike Pence
Most similar to: George W. Bush
Pence may have been the Vice-President, and that’s a nice-to-have, allowing him to handle the Trump question by pointing to the accomplishments of the administration. However, the main show here is who he is: Mike Pence is the evangelical candidate. That means his campaign must, must win Iowa. Make a virtue of your sincere commitment to your faith and values and let the voters see it day in day out. Abandon all hope of getting the diehard Trump vote; a lot of the primary electorate hates you - you need to cobble together the persuadables from who’s left, and it’s far from impossible, between supply-side right-wingers and religious types like pro-lifers who aren’t sold on Trump. Go to God, y’all.
Tim Scott
Most similar to: Ronald Reagan
Scott is the guy for the establishment-optimist lane, with a side of evangelical. He’s been attracting plenty of donors and rave reviews, and knocked it out the park in South Carolina in his reelection. He can lead charismatic crowd concerts and his demeanour is well placed to contrast with the frontrunners. The big and unfortunate question here is how much being black will impede his progress in a Republican primary. There will be overt racism from a slice of the electorate, and more broadly he’ll get tokenised in discussions and his blackness will be made out to be his message, creating a vicious cycle as he is incentivised to tackle the question head on.
If that’s the case, then on a level detached from the ickiness of what this involves, I guess it makes sense to play to tropes of being “articulate” and “classy”, following the different models Barack Obama and briefly successful black Republican candidates like Herman Cain and Ben Carson have set up. Strategically his evangelism appears to be leading him to Iowa, which I wouldn’t say is optimal but positions him to get off to a strong start and make himself competitive with the frontrunners.
Use that donor money to prepare in order to follow up in New Hampshire and of course in must-win South Carolina. Be the one who’ll fight back against lying Demorat racism - both the “boo hoo, white kids get taught they’re the oppressor” kind and the “oh they’re calling me a Uncle Tom on Twitter, that’s genuinely racist as and super hypocritical” to get attention.
Remain responsive to any declines in DeSantis’s fortunes, ready to quickly woo away voters who shake free of him but without actively trying to bring him down. Build a Reaganite economic model to bring in yet more donors and establishment types and provide that alternative to the Trumpian way of doing things. This is still a long shot, but it’s the least of the longs; if DeSantis falters, Scott looks to be the go-to Trump alternative.
The Frontrunners
Ron DeSantis
Most similar to: Scott Walker
DeSantis is one of two candidates with a serious shot at winning this thing. You shouldn’t read into his recent downturn much - he’s still a strong candidate, having blown out his reelection campaign and looking like the “most conservative electable option” - but he was never ahead in the polls, and you usually have to be first place in the polls from the start in order to win. Being a cold fish and an obviously soulless politician has snowballed into making him increasingly unconvincing to the elites, who are handling 2024 in enormously stupid fashion, repeating all the mistakes of 2016 and not self-correcting. He’s got a weak team around him and has not developed a strong response to Trump himself yet. With any relatively new figure like him there’s always the risk of skeletons in the closet.
On the elites front, you have to get convincing. Remind them what happened in 2016, when the elites went from “Trump will never win and we can pick and choose our favourites” to “Trump is bound to win and there’s no point trying”. It’s gonna happen again here, and it could happen in 2028!!! The GOP can’t afford to keep snoozing and passing up opportunities to act. Suck it up, buttercup, and play the weird little games of shaking their hands and visiting their galas - it’s a small price to pay for the nuclear briefcase.
On the everybody else front, don’t make this an electability fight. That’s probably the wrong read on this primary based off what polling of preferences and the general direction of the party signals so far. DeSantis agrees with me - he signed a six week limit on getting an abortion before it’s illegal, for goodness’ sake, he is burning the long end of the candle for the short right now. Make this primary about who can get things done.
Trump has his election fraud claims, effusive charisma/reality distortion field, and “missing voter” theories even the left are liable to buy. He can convince a lot of Republicans of the probably untrue claim that he’d be a strong or at least serviceable general election campaign, and while this won’t be top of mind for most voters, he genuinely would buoy Republican candidates in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia to claim the Senate.
Trump is not convincing on actually getting things done. The GOP now broadly loves his policies, but he has little to show for his time in government and creates a destructive relationship with the other parts of government necessary to effective change. DeSantis can paint himself as a change agent from his time remaking Florida in Trump’s image. You cannot sail to this. You have to, in practice, endanger your general election chances to give the pretence you’ll get elected and do stuff. However, this is the way.
Donald Trump
Most similar to: Joe Biden
Despite all the black marks on his record, it’s not that complicated: he’s been ahead in the polls from the start, he’s determined to keep running, and he has infrastructure and especially name recognition. In that respects he’s much like Biden 2020 (or just plain Trump 2016): sometimes the candidate who seems so weak, and yet so many people just know and default to, takes the W. So much of the primary is people trying to varying extents to be Trumpy, and nobody’s Trumpier than Trump.
Trump remains rigid strategically, and fails to cultivate establishment support. He has to hope that he has the right read on the primary - that the people are still looking for the fighter they can trust to advocate for the Trumpian agenda - and run the odds on this one. You know that he won't deviate from this course, and that means that he’ll project the usual confidence he brings to everything, rather than looking like a weak and scrambling politician. It’s still uncertain, however, how precisely he would deal with seriously slipping in the polls below any contender.
Strategically, you know he’ll keep training all his guns on DeSantis. Fair enough - DeSantis is the main contender, he’s a more credible threat than most, and the more that DeSantis weakens, the more other candidates can get some oxygen and split the non-Trump vote. Other than that, forget about the primary and keep acting like you’re running for president, complete with policy announcements, direct engagement with the affairs of Biden and Congress, the whole shebang.
The first benefit is just getting those general election narratives and infrastructure going sooner and having longer to work. The second is that you also need to make your electability argument: how better to do that than to show you’re taking the task of beating Biden seriously, rather than getting dirty pandering to the Republican base? Thirdly, you give the rest of the field a chance to proliferate.
Instead, use the most right-wing candidates, the Freedom Caucus and the like as hard-right punching bags to make yourself look economically moderate and sensible by comparison: Social Security and Medicare will be safe on Trump’s watch, and that helps Congressional candidates. Meanwhile, there’s no need to even attack the relatively moderate or fresh candidates; just belittle them by implying they can be your vice president or otherwise take spots in your administration, and you box them in and terrify them with the question of how to respond.
The final thing is that Trump should go back to his roots: his pitch is he’s the businessman who can fix crumbling infrastructure and make the US the centre of the world again, and he needs to remember that a little bit more. It’s gonna be the economy, stupid. Act like it. Trump, then DeSantis, are by far the most likely nominees, but you still can’t predict anything with certainty. All we can hope for is that fireworks fly, and whoever wins, loses. Let's get down to business!
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