Within this storm, I’m left wondering at the tinkling teacup that is Foreign Affairs. Nanaia Mahuta was billed to hang onto it in the impending reshuffle that likely hands her Local Government job to Kieran McAnulty. Now the cat is amongst the pigeons: there’s a slim chance Mahuta ends up PM, and a larger chance the Māori caucus she is prominent within gets dragged into conflict over who the next leader will be. Could she be stripped of it in the ensuing fallout? Could Andrew Little, by now the closest thing Labour has to an elder statesman, do what David Shearer should have done and become the next FA minister? I’m still not clear on Jacinda’s role in Labour in the next year: could she herself, such an effective agent for our international reputation, take on the job?
But anyway, enough speculation. David Parker has proven that now is not the time for inside baseball, joking or otherwise.
Here’s more pages on who Labour’s next leader might be and what it all means! Specifically, I want to step through who’s ruled themselves out yet, who benefits from that, the wings of the Labour Party as best as I know them, and what a clash between their representatives signifies.
Alongside Deputy PM Robertson, two more potential candidates have ruled themselves out. Deputy Leader Kelvin Davis is not running, nor is McAnulty. Neither surprises me; Davis is notorious for saying the wrong thing at the wrong time and better placed behind the scenes continuing to work on prison reform, while McAnulty is still new, a minnow with little chance of winning, who would be better served by waiting for upcoming promotions.
The two names I would elevate in their stead are Megan Woods and Robertson. Hold on, what? Isn’t he going? Sure, he’s said he is and he probably means it, but the case for him remains strong. There is no doubt that Ardern will not be dissuaded from her course; in the event the party cannot find any other strong candidate, Robertson, who already intends to stay on to the next term, could be persuaded to fight a Type 1 candidacy, hold the ship together, and promptly resign as leader after the election.
As a coda to that, it’s also worth noting that he is remaining as deputy PM, which affects the diversity on tickets. A gay white man is guaranteed to be your deputy until the election, and anybody who could serve as a good deputy will have to set themselves up for the next term, not now. Speaking of helpful roles for the party, I also learnt that Megan Woods ran their 2020 campaign, and is seen as a strong fighter who stylistically contrasts with Ardern. If Labour wants to commit to a Type 3 campaign and run an election around which side voters loathe more, she’s their woman.
This leads me neatly into presenting my, very rough, diagram on what wings of the party various contenders for leader or future deputy fall within. “Fighter” generally denotes anybody who stylewise is the opposite of Ardern, i.e instead of killing them with kindness and radiating sunny optimism, they bring some combination of anger and dismay. (The difference being anger is “our opponents are stupid and bad”, while dismay is more “how can we sit by and let terrible things happen?”)
Centrism versus leftism are my best attempts to place both where they lie ideologically and how they will be perceived (e.g minorities are often assumed to be to the left of white men), though you can definitely dispute some of these (Duncan Webb, David Parker). Unionism denotes close ties to affiliates and a background in that movement, while falling within the purview of the Māori caucus is not simply a literal statement that they are a Māori MP, but that they choose to align themselves closely with its goals or that much of the caucus sees them as a vessel for their own interests.
You’ll also note that I’ve sized them very roughly relatively to their odds, pointing out the domination of the centrist wing of the party in recent history. Hipkins sits more on the right of the party and could be expected to close the gap even further between National and Labour ideologically. Wood is popular with much of the membership and sits squarely in the industrial left, but that provides angles to attack him on; besides National’s favourites around unionism, he has been an ambassador for the short-sighted stubbornness of this administration on its immigration policy.
The other key figure on the union left, now that Iain Lees-Galloway (I didn't really need to bold that, but it's so fun to do!) is gone, is Andrew Little, who got to the leadership on the back of union affiliates. There would be a neat narrative circle if the man who stepped down to make Ardern leader finally got to be Prime Minister thanks to her resignation: he is unelectable, especially with his tendency to get into scraps on full display recently, but Labour can install a man they love for this year. Moreover, if the Māori caucus cannot install a Māori Prime Minister but no clear alternative wins out, he is their likely next-best choice for his strong handling of the Māori Health Authority and Treaty settlement processes.
As mentioned, though, the Māori caucus want a Prime Minister who hails from the tangata whenua now. One of their co-chairs, Rino Tirikatene, has not ruled out running, but they need to weigh up the difference between a sectional versus a winning candidate. They have every right to run him or somebody else like Peeni Henare who attracts quiet respect to make the point that no tangata whenua has ever been Prime Minister before, and any barriers to that should fall. However, splitting the vote with a candidate without a strong case outside of Māoridom can only begin to set up splits in the party that will rear their head over the next few years, just like we saw in 2018-2021 National and 2010-2017 Labour. Candidates like these ought to be evaluated as Type 4s: the same would go for if the right or the left of a party had a Bernie Sanders-esque candidate intent on tugging the Overton Window, though so far they do not. Losing defines Type 4s, but win and you'll be a Type 1 thinking you're a Type 2 until the day after the election.
If the caucus cannot decide and the vote includes the unions and membership, those forces can once again be pitted against each other, resulting in close margins, several factions, and losing candidates nursing grudges and white-anting the new leadership. Instead, they need somebody with a strong shot at winning a supermajority of votes - for instance, if neither Hipkins nor Wood run and Allan steps up as the next Ardern. They need an all-or-nothing mentality - decide whether it is best to get a Māori PM right now who may not last the year, or ensure the party will settle on a Māori leader in 2024 to take the Beehive in 2026.
Still, on a personal and factional level, there are plenty of incentives for any old candidate to run, or to take a leading role in drafting another candidate. They can make a name for themselves, attract attention, build name recognition, and win favour amongst wings of the party for taking stances that represent those otherwise left out. (For instance, a Hipkins vs. Wood race means two white guys in the Beehive either way and does not accommodate various marginalised interests in the party.) All of that can be of enormous use in the upcoming reshuffle, which will provide the ministers for probably the final year of government and set the tone for Opposition.
Who is likely to get promotions? Deborah Russell of New Lynn (in West Auckland), Barbara Edmonds of Mana (around Porirua north of Wellington), and Kieran McAnulty of Wairarapa (around Masterton in the southeast North Island) are all good shouts. Ayesha Verrall (list MP from Wellington) is nigh-certain to take over Health from Little, necessitating his move to another high-up post - he could return to Justice if Allan becomes PM, go to Foreign Affairs as mentioned earlier, or take on other big tasks like Housing, Education, or especially Police - urgent this year, requiring a hand like his or Hipkins - to free up Hipkins or Woods.
We will see who else makes a name for themselves and where it gets them. Allan’s already-meteoric rise to Justice means that, while her list number might rise, she will remain paused for now on post. Hipkins and Woods are already at the ceiling. Wood might make his name and move higher than 16th onto the biggest portfolios. Beyond that, this matter relies on dark horses and unforeseen-as-yet events, but keep an eye or two out.
Whatever team the new leader ends up assembling, they must recognise that voters will be recognising Labour again for the first time, rather than the party of Jacinda. The Cabinet and the caucus they end up commanding and the campaign they find themselves running had best be by design, rather than the messy chaos of years past from both major parties. The public will punish naked political ambition, with unknown personalities clawing for power for a year, as we should. All I can say to Labour is: let us reward you! Make good decisions, put the right team forward, and win or lose, close the book on the Jacinda era and make it known you’ve got the right plans, policies, and practicalities for a new era in New Zealand. Let’s finish this.
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