You think I’ve got a retrospective prepped this soon? I’m not comfortable commenting on Ardern’s leadership immediately. I feel for her. I’m totally stealing this opinion from Wellington councilor Fleur Fitzsimons, but resignation after just six years speaks to a need for us to still do more to support women and mothers in politics. She came in for terrible abuse (anybody who wants to call her a cow, a horse or a pig can bugger right off - hearing that kind of ugly cruelty does terrible things to women of all ages). She came under great strain. She tried, and now she is going. Good on her; good for her; well wishes to her.
What I am here to do is renew my speculation on who comes next (see Succession for my outdated, long-winded, and rather interesting opinions). We all have to wonder who our next PM is now. This article firstly contextualises the upcoming leadership contest, secondly identifies the three kinds of leadership candidates we could see, and thirdly picks particular names for leader and deputy to take over the country.
A recap of the rules: Labour can pick their new leader if a two-thirds supermajority of MPs all vote the same way; if they don’t agree that much, it goes to a joint vote of the MPs, members and union affiliates, who make up a 40/40/20 split of the overall 100% of the vote. They begin this weekend, and they must be done in under three weeks; Jacinda finishes on the 7th of February.
Finally, before I get to the names, consider the framework this election takes place in. Jacinda is going because trying to fix many intractable problems has been bloody exhausting, and because losing an election means you lose the power to even try, beyond comparatively small input from Opposition. She is protecting her legacy; many members of the party still have careers to look to ahead of them. Members low on the list or in marginal seats want to vote for a candidate who can save their spot (except those so low they know there is no hope of replicating a 2020 performance). Moreover, the party has not decided; Ardern kept this news tight, and there is no clear replacement lined up yet, with the party now insisting on a 75% threshold of support amongst MPs.
All of that means that leadership candidates will run with one of three mentalities. The first is that they are doing their duty to go down with a doomed ship - Labour must jettison excessive projects and lose cleanly, without black marks on its reputation as with their supposedly fiscally irresponsible defeat in 2008. This will ensure they lose the leadership after the election, but allow the party to renew with plenty of talent in Opposition, hold the National-ACT government to account, and plan to eventually return to power in six or nine years. Phil Goff and Andrew Little matched this model - tail-end charlies for bygone times.
The second is that they think that they can hold true to a distinctive Labour agenda, lose by an unexpectedly close margin, and consequently hold onto the leadership after the election as a vote-getter. In this way, they can rally the Labour team to come roaring back and win against an incompetent and uninspiring National-ACT government in 2026, promptly returning to the post-pandemic agenda. Helen Clark is a good example of this kind of leadership, and Mike Moore also fits the bill.
The third is that they genuinely believe that, even with Labour’s strongest asset in Ardern gone, they can pull out an election win. Through a radical shift - either to the centre or to the left - the party can jettison the baggage of recent years, whip up enthusiasm again, and repeat what Jacinda herself did in 2017. Todd Muller is an unsuccessful example of this type, as are in ways Don Brash and David Cunliffe.
Now, let’s get to the specifics. First, let’s rule out options. Ardern’s out of the picture and so is Grant Robertson, which makes sense - as strong as I’ve been on the case for him in the past, it’s understandable that a guy so exhausted with leadership struggles that he gave up all the way back in 2014 wouldn’t want to plunge back into the pool right as the blue wave is about to hit. Others are also retiring - David Clark, Aupito William Sio, Poto Williams - and this isn’t a 2020 situation where people are factoring their departure based on whether Jacinda stays or goes.
Nobody scandal-ridden or full of failure who lacked a strong case anyways can make a try - notably Meka Whaitiri, Phil Twyford and Willie Jackson - and that will hold people with skeletons in the closet we don’t know about back. Some MPs like Jackson stake their position in the party on advancing interests and agendas rather than their personal success first. About a third of MPs are too far down the list to have made an impression or expect to return to Parliament, chopping off those around Helen White or further down. It can’t be Adrian Rurawhe because he’s Speaker of the House, and it can’t be Andrew Little because they’ve tried that and know it doesn’t work. (What an electrifying Type 1 option that would be, though - he’s the one candidate you know has the experience for it.)
That leaves us with around or under half of caucus in theory, though of course the large majority are not really contenders. Going from the bottom up of the list, we first come across Tāmati Coffey. He’s a total outside shot - he narrowly lost the Waiāriki last time, and has been involved in co-governance controversies - but neatly fits the Type 3 mold of an exciting new face, with plenty of name recognition and positive feelings, and the groundbreaking achievement of the first Prime Minister actually from the tangata whenua.
Next for those with a narrow shot is Duncan Webb. Look, I’m wishcasting here. I like him and he excites me more than most of the high-ranking Labour MPs (just scroll up the list yourself and see how fast the faces grey and dull). I don’t think he’s a likely leader, but he could fit well as deputy on a Type 2 or 3 ticket as a “counterbalance” to a leader who isn’t a white guy (see Succession for a good explanation of “ticket balancing”).
Kieran McAnulty is a similar shout for “actually interesting white guy who can connect with ‘Middle New Zealand’”. (What the “middle” of a country politically means is always vague, but think plaid, ute, and gumboots.) He’d be enjoyable either as leader of a Type 2 ticket, or as deputy on a Type 3, but don’t make him deputy to anybody boring - he’ll just overshadow them, leading the media to pounce on any bad polls as an excuse to call for a coup.
Kiri Allan is the go-to for trying to reheat the Jacinda effect and run a Type 3 leadership. She is young, charming, has a hell of a biography, and would also be the first Māori PM. What I think she also brings, that may be overlooked, is a chance for a Labour Party that has drifted towards the interests of the white collar to be redirected towards the provinces, the poverty, and the problems on display in our country. However, two things make her success a bad idea to start right now. The first is that pushing her into a campaign like this could destroy her leadership before it’s even really begun - much like how, in ways, Labour was not yet ready in 2017 to govern. The second is that she has had cancer, and to discover remission while in the Beehive, fighting for three more years there, would be an awful thing indeed.
Michael Wood is a man I've been frankly insulting about before, and I was and wasn't right, so let me try to square this. Yes, within the caucus, the "Little Napoleon" has forged a reputation as a get-it-done strongman who could step up to the plate and try to redefine Labour from its disappointments of "Let's Do This". However, such descriptions carry undertones of overweening ambition. If he gets the job, the public mostly won't know who he is, and those who do will remember the Auckland cycle bridge fiasco. This would be a classic case of caucus being out of touch with the public and personal politics triumphing over the tune of the nation, making his candidacy a Type 1 on arrival even if he hopes more for a Type 2.
We're reaching high-up names you don't hear much about, so let's just tick off "the field" quickly here. Jan Tinetti, Peeni Henare and Carmel Sepuloni haven't made much of an impression and would fall into being Type 1s, but that means that they have avoided pitfalls, too, and as representatives of Labour's growing diversity, keep an eye on them for the deputy spot. Stuart Nash offers a Type 3 tilt towards full UK New Labour type centrism, but hardly the necessary excitement, making him more of a Type 2 eyeing a rebrand over the coming years.
Kelvin Davis, David Parker and Nanaia Mahuta have all moved in circles near the leadership and could be Type 1s or 2s, but the first is too gaffe-prone and lightweight, the second has that lethal Adrian Orr combination of being both dull and hectoring, and the third has, unfortunately and with plenty of abuse to show for it, been made the face of everything people hate about the government. Megan Woods remains something of a cypher despite her ascent; she could be a proxy for Grant Robertson and the remnants of the Jim Anderton wing of the party, running for a Type 2 leftist renewal, or a Type 1 captain to default to if nobody else wants to go down with the ship just yet.
And so we come, at long last, to the man of the hour: Chris Hipkins. In many ways he is like Michael Wood - background and identity, age and appearance, reputation for actually getting it done in a government on halt. He has taken that into overdrive, moving across the government to wherever the hull breaches yawn widest, and while that creates unfavourable associations with COVID and the past years, that has built his name recognition. Chris Hipkins may polarise, but he is the one man who sits at the intersection between youth and experience, excitement and heavyweight. Chris Hipkins is Type 1, 2 and 3 all in one - he can give Labour their most reliable chance in this election, and from the result, one can most clearly augur whether to continue with Kind Labour or whether they have killed it with kindness.
My instincts pull me towards a few of these names. Hipkins is the best-placed to win if he runs, but with future opportunities most likely ahead of him, may not want to run. Michael Wood is ambitious enough and in just enough of a midway position in the party to need to run now or risk not getting the chance again. Kiri Allan grabs you like nobody else eligible does. McAnulty, Little and Mahuta round out the notable names from the field. Enjoy watching the horserace for votes; inspect who does well and does not, who chooses to run and who sits out, and see what that means for the future of this election, this party, and this country. Au revoir, Prime Minister Jacinda.
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