Samoans are arguing over human rights and democracy. This has riveted me, and, though the crisis is concerning for democracy, I think the way in which this has put all eyes on Samoa has a silver lining. It's good when we pay attention to important events in the world - especially because, as we will see, this matters more for Aotearoa than you might think - and it shows the stakes are high. Moreover, I feel hope and confidence that events will end well.
I am unfamiliar with Samoa and her political scene, so take this piece with a grain of salt. My apologies for spelling errors, mistranslations, or misrepresentation. This is intended to be as correct as possible of a retelling of the fascinating narrative that’s played out so far.
Dramatis Personae
N.B: some important Samoans are matai - holders of family chief titles. Their names will be bolded to indicate this additional prestige, power, and responsibility.
Vaega Faaupufai e Puipuia Aia Tatau a Tagata (the Human Rights Protection Party, or HRPP):
This Christian Democratic party has won every election since 1982. While many voters thought they failed on the 2019 measles outbreak, the country has escaped COVID outbreaks.
Tuilaepa Aiono Sailele Malielegaoi: he obtained his degree at the University of Auckland before returning to Samoa. He has ruled as PM since 1998. While an election had to be called in 2021 due to Samoa’s five-year terms, he has been critical of that fact, insinuating opponents are sabotaging Samoa.
Leaupepe Toleafoa Faafisi: the Speaker of the House, he has filled that or other governmental roles since 1996.
Ali'imalemanu Alofa Tuuau: an MP since 2016. She thinks the HRPP’s Christianization of the country in 2017, adopting the principle of Samoa as a Christian country into constitutional law, did not go far enough. She believes women should pull ourselves up by our bootstraps, and that we disadvantage ourselves when we claim others disadvantage us.
Tautua Samoa:
An agrarian center-left party, they have historically played the role of opposition, but have contracted since the HRPP's 2016 landslide. They entered into an alliance with some minor parties to contest the election. Events have proven their members to be now irrelevant to Samoan politics.
Faʻatuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (Faith in the One God of Samoa, or FAST):
This group splintered from the HRPP in 2020 over the Land and Titles bill, which was widely criticised for threatening the rule of law and human rights, and other reforms in a similar vein. They maintain a Christian Democratic ethos, but built an electoral alliance, separate from that of Tautua Samoa.
Fiame Naomi Mataʻafa: educated at Samuel Marsden and Victoria University of Wellington. She has served as an MP since 1985. From 2016 to 2020, she was deputy PM, before becoming the highest-profile defector from the government. She has received considerable coverage as breaking ground and blazing a trail for women.
Unaffiliated
Va'aletoa Sualauvi II: he served as a police officer in New Zealand for three years. In 2017, his name was submitted for the office of O le Ao o le Malo. This is a position for the holder of one of the four paramount titles (in his case, the Tama-a-'aiga title of Tuimalealiifano). Malielegaoi nominated Sualauvi, and his seconding by the leader of Tautua Samoa confirmed him as a bipartisan head of state.
Fuiavailili Egon Keil: a police officer for 17 years in the Los Angeles Police Department. Keil was appointed as Police Commissioner of Samoa in 2015. In 2019, he joined Fiame in Australia to accept the delivery of the Nafanua II as a police vessel.
Tuala Iosefo Ponifasio: a perennial parliamentary candidate since 2006. Before 2021, Tuala had not made a significant impact on Samoan politics.
The key takeaways are 1), that the HRPP is the party of government and FAST threatens to supplant Tautua Samoa as the opposition; 2), that matai are prominent in politics, but one does not need to be a matai to get elected; 3), that many notable Samoans were partially formed by years in our country; and 4), that Christianity is an important strain in Samoan politics.
On 26 March 2021, Malielegaoi predicted that the HRPP would win the election and increase its seats in Parliament from 35 to 45 out of 51. How wrong he was. The actual outcome on the 9th of April was not a 10-seat expansion but a 10-seat contraction for the HRPP, who ended up on 25. Tautua Samoa won none; instead, it was FAST who surged to 25 MPs. Tuala rounded out the results, finally winning election as an independent.
HRPP and FAST were now deadlocked, despite a disparity in their vote share - over 50,000 votes and over 55% of the total for the ruling party, just 3.26% for Tautua Samoa, and just 32,000, well under 40%, for FAST. The government only lost 1.4% of their 2016 vote share. Be wary of how first-past-the-post can distort election results - FAST strategically got just over the line in swing seats, while many HRPP votes run up in their strongholds were wasted.
Five of those MPs elected were women, with Tuuau not amongst them. Importantly, a 2013 constitutional amendment provides a gender quota for Parliament: at least 10% of seats must be occupied by women. 10% of 51 is 5.1, so technically only 9.8% of seats were filled by women.
After the 9th of April, there were a trio of factors to contend with. The first was a 45-day deadline from then for the new parliament to form, a deadline which lies on today. The second were what would grow to become a total of 28 election petitions, again equally deadlocked - 14 from HRPP and 14 from FAST - for the courts to sort. The third were the deliberations of Tuala, now a Samoan Winston Peters left to decide which party he would enter into coalition with to give a majority and elevate to government.
The next development came on 20 April. The Electoral Commission announced that an overhang seat would be tacked onto Parliament, to be filled by Tuuau, in order to fill the 10% quota. That created a 26-25 HRPP majority, with Tuala still undecided. The next day, he decided to join FAST in return for the prize of Deputy Prime Minister, creating a 26-26 deadlock.
On the 4th of May, Malielegaoi and Fiame each met with Sualauvi II to discuss the idea of a second election to resolve deadlock. Malielegaoi, supported by Tautua Samoa, was for new elections; Fiame was against a second election respectively, relying on FAST’s suits around Tuuau’s appointment. Sualauvi sided with those who nominated him for power in the first place, and called new elections for the 21st May. However, on the 17th, the Supreme Court overturned the appointment of Tuuau, ruling that five women in Parliament meant the quota had effectively been met. They therefore invalidated a second election as unnecessary: Parliament now clearly had a majority of 26 between Fast and Tuala, and an opposition in minority of HRPP’s 25 members. Malielegaoi vowed to appeal the decision, and, more ominously, to stay in power until all twenty-eight electoral cases were resolved. Still, hope seemed to have arrived. Sualauvi II confirmed that Parliament would meet today, on the 24th of May, to abide by the deadline.
Five days later, a shocking series of actions rocked Samoa and prolonged a crisis that had already lasted for 43 days. On Saturday, the 22nd of May, just before midnight, Sualauvi II suspended Parliament without offering a justification. Yesterday afternoon, on the 23rd, the Supreme Court predictably voided this unjustified interference by the executive against the legislature. Malielegaoi promised to boycott any Parliament, further undermining the legislature, and threatened the judiciary with prosecution. Later that evening, Faafasi violated the Supreme Court order and cancelled the new Parliament's first business, of swearing in the new FAST MPs and Tualu. This morning, FAST MPs and their supporters marched on a locked Parliament. Police and the Clerk prohibited them from entering, so they vowed they would wait outside for Sualavi II to arrive. Instead, he has returned to his home village, with roadblocks established to prevent anybody gaining access to him. The Supreme Court marched on Parliament with the Police Commissioner and his loyalists, and have sworn in the new MPs standing outside Parliament.
Fiame and Tualu are now leading a rival Parliament founded in a tent. While Malielegaoi has concurred with FAST on also calling for calm and preventing violence from breaking out, he has also resorted to inflammatory language, denouncing the Parliament-in-exile as treasonous even as Fiame and her allies accuse him of mounting a coup. Sualavi reiterated on the 1st of June in an address to the nation that he will justify his actions in time, and that the country must come together, unite, and forgive, using Christian rhetoric that has been prevalent throughout the crisis.
Fiame and two of her MPs have been brought to trial and come to court over a private case brought by Malielegaoi. The judiciary has sided with them so far, such as with the Court of Appeal striking down Tuuau's bid to return to Parliament on the 2nd of June. They remain confident it will amount to nothing. Perhaps they should not be so confident: the Attorney-General of Samoa has sided with HRPP and condemned the swearing-in of the FAST government as unconstitutional.
Samoa's closest neighbour is American Samoa. In another indication of its relevance to us, the US Ambassador to Samoa is also the Ambassador to New Zealand, based in Wellington; since Trump's appointment departed, we are still waiting for Biden's pick to arrive, and the interim manager has put out no statement on the crisis. The Federated States of Micronesia and a former President of the Marshall Islands have each weighed in in support of Fiame's claim to govern. Otherwise, Pacific nations like New Zealand and institutions like the Pacific Island Forum have not taken sides, stressing the priority is democracy and offering their assistance.
Update One: I updated this article as more occurred over the following days. Events are still playing out but, for now, the stalemate seems to have slowed down, to be decided in the courts, likely in favour of FAST.
Update Two: the matter has since peacefully resolved itself. The courts ruled responsibly in favour of the democratic outcome. FAST have assumed their rightful roles in government. Malielegaoi has conceded his loss. We can only pray that Samoan democracy shall get stronger, not weaker, from here. He has played with fire, and we must hope he has only burnt himself in the process.
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