One more thing!
Somebody has pointed a very important detail about Raf Manji making it in to me, that has much greater importance than who represents Ilam. We can affect whether NZ First can hold the balance of power yet again after the election. Paraphrased here with permission, we know two things thanks to the polls right now.
The first thing is that, whether you like it or not, National and ACT are extremely likely to form the next government. Labour are simply too far behind with six days to go. Given that, a lot of voters are turning away from "can National beat Labour?" to "what form will this National-ACT government take?"
The second is that most polls have National and ACT just missing out on being able to form a government together by 1-2 seats. Both parties, especially ACT, have been slipping. As a result, NZ First has an opportunity to return to government.
TOP have been polling around 1.2-1.3% of the vote. Get Raf in and the coattail rule means they likely have those two MPs that could make the difference, but only if you get Raf in. This creates a plain choice for Ilam voters.
We can focus on voting in Hamish Campbell, which will do nothing to help National because of the way MMP works - if he loses, another National list candidate will simply fill his place and they will remain on the same number of MPs. Do this and Winston Peters remains on track to get back into government.
Or we can electorate vote Raf Manji, and instead of a National-ACT-NZ First government, we would have a National-ACT-TOP government. Raf could be expected to be stronger on environmental issues and moderate some of ACT's wackier policies. The man is a constructive, reasonable finance guy - he'll fit right in to this government as smoothly as any.
There are many ways in which NZ First is a destructive influence in government, and everybody who has chosen to work with them, on the left and right alike, has come to rue it. On top of everything else they're now in with the anti-vax fringe, they disrupt to get attention instead of promoting good policy, they are in constant scandal while pointing the finger at everybody else, and at the end of the day you simply cannot trust Winston Peters.
Vote Campbell or Pallett and, regardless of their merits as candidates, you are voting for a National-ACT-NZ First government for the entire country. Vote Manji and you can secure the safe out of a National-ACT-TOP government. Winston has all eyes on him and he's going to keep rising. On top of all of Raf's merits, this is the best shot at stopping Peters from sneaking back in. The choice is ours to make.
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