The Tories Take Te Pāti Māori Treatment

If the authorial voice feels a little odd in this piece, it’s not ChatGPT talking - this article, instead of going through my usual process, is simply a tidied-up version of a long explainer I provided in a group chat on my bus ride home this evening.

Let’s contextualise this within the British political scene. The comparison was put by The New Statesman, I think correctly, that this is the biggest public blowup between the highest-ups in a party since Deputy PM Geoffrey Howe and PM-in-waiting Michael Heseltine got their knives out for Margaret Thatcher in November 1990. All the more notable given the oft-repeated stat that the Conservatives are mathematically the most electorally successful political party in the history of the Western world.

So what happened? 

Just kidding, more context incoming.

The UK local elections in May have been getting mega hyped up for ages. 

The UK generally takes far more important signals from non-parliamentary elections than we do in New Zealand, because:

1. Their parties directly run candidates in all elections;

2. Their general elections are so far apart and so unfair for minor parties that they have to look to other signals to see which parties are up or down;

3. The UK is composed of four different nations, and it means a lot if a party does especially well or poorly in a given nation, like how I personally think Labour’s Ls in Wales are the most interesting and dangerous for them.

For instance, the 2014 European Parliament elections were for borderline meaningless seats. But it dominated headlines when the Conservative government slipped to third place (23% to Labour’s 24.5% and UKIP - then Farage’s outfit, currently dancing around sporting Iron Crosses - landed 26.5%). This was a major catalyst in David Cameron calling the Brexit referendum. 

Local elections are especially important because, in a country with 650 parliamentary constituencies and 650 MPs, you need a lot of people with some political experience and knowledge to campaign in seats and contest selections, so the local elections are basically your big chance to stock your pantry with talent.

Now. What does all of this coming up in May - where, of course, Reform are expected to do well, and Lab & Con terribly - with today’s news?

After the Tories got landslided out of government in the 2024 election, the leadership contest went down to the wire between the only two figures in the party who could realistically lead.

(Ngāti Kotarani, Ngāi Tūāhuriri, Kāti Māmoe, Waitaha*)

[I ignore this interjection.]

Kemi Badenoch, to drastically oversimplify, made this pitch: “I’m the daughter of Nigerian immigrants and I pulled myself up my bootstraps instead of developing a victimhood complex, I can take it to the woke lefties” - which won her the leadership election but I think was a few years behind the times of the political winds. Her leadership was more an echo of BLM and US style politics than the current anti-immigrant wave.

Robert Jenrick, once a typical softie lovely liberal, suddenly hard pivoted to “I HATE IMMIGRANTS SO MUCH”. He nearly won, and has clearly been seen as leader in waiting ever since. He’s popular on social media and is Justice Spokesperson, where there’s loads to ream the government on. And under the past three Tory PMs, he was minister of: 

1. Boris - Housing 

2. Liz - Health 

3. Rishi - Immigration

*Ooh snap, callback!

So this is a pretty big figure in the national political debate! I’d argue he is to Badenoch - who has been finding her voice recently, but was a complete non factor unresponsive to the political winds for months - what Chris Bishop is to Luxon. It’s not like the whole country loves them or they’d be a lock to win the next election or anything. But they’re clearly the voice at the heart of what the party can pitch to voters against the main competition and the only realistic name to take over.

I hear you. I hear you asking: what does this have to do with the May local elections?

In a scene straight out of The Thick Of It - Veep - or whichever other political comedy nobody’s actually watched that you’d like to name…

A Tory loyalist - an MP or staffer, it's not clear - happens to be around the Parliamentary complexes when what should they notice just lying around (it's disputed whether it was in Jenrick's office or not, but either way, it was clearly carelessly accessible).

And it’s the draft…

Of Jenrick’s speech resigning from the Conservative Party.

Which he is refining with his team in anticipation of delivering it - I would presume in April - with the intent of completely blowing a hole in the side of the Tories right before the May elections. Totally torpedoing their chances and dooming them as a party by showing to voters: they’re a sinking ship, there’s no hope for them - 

Come join Reform.

So this loyalist comes to Kemi with the draft, and she does something Chris Luxon would never do - she instantly sacks the ever-living daylights out of Mister Jenrick.

She hops on Zoom and records for the public even as she sends her message privately, vowing: he is out of my Shadow Cabinet; he is out of the Tory Party; he is the rat that tried to sink us.

And Nigel Farage’s would-be relatively humdrum press conference later that same day, became his joint announcement with Jenrick that the leading light of the Conservatives would be joining his party. 

So there’s an astonishing amount of fallout to go around. Not just because - what’s the hope for the Tories anymore…

But that there’s been this growing unease for a while now amongst the Reform faithful. If the purpose of the party is to replace the failed Tories as the real right wing party, then why keep taking in so many Tories? To which one might reasonably argue that Farage needs experience and know how on his side. (And that may allow him to sweeten the pot…will Jenrick be his Chancellor (Finance Minister)?) 

But Farage made two important announcements in that press conference, besides the obvious. 

#1: He reiterated his claim that a well-known Labour Party figure will soon join Reform. No clue who he’s talking about, and whoever has slipped under my radar might prove underwhelming.

#2: If you want to defect to Reform - get your application in by May 7th. Because once the local elections are done, they won’t be taking any more MPs in: Labour or Tory. 

So, to mix my metaphors, the rats are about to enter a feeding frenzy aboard the sinking ship.