2020 was packed with US political news. We can expect 2024 to be the same. Here’s an overview of what to expect in the meantime, between Biden’s inauguration and the first votes in 2024 primaries.
The COVID cycle of infections, deaths, lockdowns and socioeconomic trainwreckage continues. The worst-hit, densest states are presided over by major US governors like Andrew Cuomo (New York) or Gavin Newsom (California), with their likely presidential ambitions threatened by that pressure. On the other hand, successful population inoculation can make this all go away. (Will the public credit Biden or Trump?)
Newsom faces a possible "recall" (binding referendum on his incumbency). This could work out for him. Wisconsin’s Governor Scott Walker faced a 2012 recall after busting public unions. He ascended to national status, won the election, and attained the halo of a 2016 presidential prospect.
Also coming up is the New York mayoral election. Nothing suggests AOC will run. Who else might? Whether a protégé or opponent of Cuomo wins indicates his influence. Entrepreneur and UBI advocate Andrew Yang ran for president in 2020. If he wins the mayoralty, that’s a chance to implement his signature policy, and three years of experience before a potential second run.
2022 sees the “midterm elections” of the House of Representatives - currently led by Dems - and a third of the Senate - split 50/50, with a Democratic VP breaking ties. Here’s the historical trend in Gridlock, D.C.: a president is elected, can’t get anything done, and midterms voters punish their party. Trump, Obama, and Clinton all endured this. However, if Democrats lose the Georgia runoffs, Biden plausibly requires majorities to have a chance to make a difference. He may defy political gravity if the wind of the nation’s health and economic recovery is in his sails. Besides, the three states Democrats are most likely to lose besides Georgia are Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada. All of these states were Democrat Ws, and their considerable number of educated suburbanites and Hispanics look good for Dems.
Lara and Ivanka Trump may run for Senate in North Carolina and Florida, respectively, testing whether voters accept or reject Trump dynasts. The latter is particularly important - Marco Rubio, once touted as the Republican Obama and third place in the 2016 presidential primary, is up for reelection. An attack by a Trump from his own side would have considerable consequences.
If AOC wants a higher position than Representative, beating Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (or, less likely, Andrew Cuomo) are her two options. She could then reunite Sanders’ coalition in the 2024 presidential primary.
Finally, Trump used to wield enormous power in party primaries, using Twitter to denounce his opponents and elevate his (often less qualified and electable) favourites. Will the absence of that dynamic limit primary upsets, or will an ideological civil war consume the GOP anyway?
By 2023, pollsters and politicians shall be counting and courting the voters. Each party has two distinctive “lanes”. Democrats are dominated by a moderate lane, with an outside progressive lane; Republicans, a Trumpian lane, with an outside post-Trumpian, establishment route. Will voters be split in the dominant lanes, letting a dark horse amass a plurality, as Sanders did for a few months? Will we see frontrunners - Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Mike Pence - prohibitively far ahead? Those will be our best indicators.
Above all, when Trump has been embraced by Republican voters for years, why would any other candidate’s X-factor - foreign policy experience, religiosity, policy plans - trump him? There is only one way I would count him out for sure - see the bottom two paragraphs. We wishfully underestimated the possibility of Trump 2024, preferring a "moment of truth" when supporters would abandon him. Conversely, many supporters content with his policies gripe over his rhetoric and scandals. Enduring another couple years of his debating may put them off entirely.
This was a dispassionate political analysis, so let me reaffirm my own fear, obscured by the frenzy of recent days. Republicans shoot themselves in the feet nonstop in a nation practically made for their narrow identity politics. They send debt and deficits skyrocketing to give tax cuts to the rich and do what’s most convenient for healthcare companies, however unpopular with the public. If a messenger abandons a corporate-first agenda to solely pander to the people, they will scare me far more than Trump ever did.
My suggestion for that messenger is now joined by others, notably Ted Cruz, in standing with Trump until the end (and the Senate removal vote will provide another indicator, and opportunity). Once again, political media has jumped to the conclusion that they are done for, blemished, outta here. What book publishers and donors and talking heads think is not as important as what the voters think. I can’t believe how an obsession with the decline of American democracy is matched by a consistent dismissal of people power.
Trump knew that power comes from the people first. And Trump is an incompetent, unpopular loser. The professional political class is a cut above him. The stimulus checks are the first sign of politicians clearly disinterested in or educated about the needs of average people committing to wholesale bribes to retain power. Republican populism resembles Rome.
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