The next American presidential election is in November 2024, but millions of voters will begin selecting their preferred Republican challenger to Joe Biden as soon as January. The weeding out process begins even sooner, with the first Republican presidential debate as a major step. For us in New Zealand, the time to tune in to Fox News is 1 pm, Thursday. (Or don’t watch, because it’s a terrible time of day for us. They’ll be talking absolute rubbish anyway - let me be the whipping girl for you on this one.)
Over two hours, the moderators will deliver the candidates various questions on a range of subjects. Think Trump’s indictments, the cost of living, the border crisis, the invasion of Ukraine, the scourge of wokeness, et cetera, et cetera. The would-be presidents will then try to grab attention, out-buzzword the rest, bicker amongst themselves and generally make for an embarrassing spectacle. My kind of weekday watching. Let’s run through who’s coming to Milwaukee!
In the first of our four buckets are the VIPs. These candidates are seated at the table by virtue of meeting the polling and donor requirements, and signing the loyalty pledge to boot, and actually have support averaging over one percent. (Basically, some Americans support them, enough are donating to their campaigns, and they’ve promised that if they lose the nomination, the winner will have their support.) Six candidates belong here: Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie and Tim Scott. (Their respective polls right now place them at 15.2%, 9.3%, 4.7%, 3.5%, 3.5%, and 3.4%. Basically, DeSantis still leads, Ramaswamy’s climbing, and then you have the rest clustering around 4%.)
DeSantis is in this weird spot right now where he’s been basically written off and left for dead. Yeah, his campaign has had enough issues to warrant the negative media narrative. He’s still second place in the polls, and well past the rest of the pack. If anybody is going to beat Trump, it will very likely be him. This debate is the perfect chance to recapture some momentum. He’s going to come in hungry to remind everybody that he is the only viable Trump challenger who can win this whole election and actually get stuff done.
Credit is particularly owed to DeSantis for debuting a new angle of attack since he started running. Most anti-Trump lines of attack are so worn out because everybody already knows them and has made up their mind: they’re unpersuasive. DeSantis is not only the only candidate but one of the only politicians period so far to even inch near articulating the most glaring Trump critique being left on the table. To paraphrase, I believe it was Nate Silver, if Trump’s whole thing is fighting the establishment and the deep state, then why does the deep state keep kicking his ass? This is how DeSantis can distinguish himself on the debate stage as not just Trump 2, but Trump 2.0: while Trump runs and hides, DeSantis explains how he can get these goals accomplished.
In the process of redemption, though, he’ll have to overcome the negative perceptions around him - that he lacks charisma and is an ideologue without diverse offerings. Any attempt to humanise himself or moderate down will clash heavily with efforts to point to his strong record in Florida. He’s in a bind, and I suspect he will remain in his usual form, to probably slightly negative critical and positive audience reception. (Keeping in mind here that the target audience is people who tune into Fox News on a Wednesday night to watch a Republican presidential debate.)
The final thing to note is that DeSantis, more than anybody else, will be defined by the strategy of his peers on stage. Other candidates may choose to pick one fight at some point with a counterpart they think they stand to benefit from going after. We know from leaked memos that at least DeSantis is looking to take Ramaswamy down, and others might try to arrest his dark horse momentum too. Nikki Haley and Tim Scott overlap as candidates of colour from South Carolina and so may seek to scrap. But DeSantis is the frontrunner of those on stage, and besides the actual frontrunner, he is bound to wind up the target of everybody else. He’ll have to rise above and reveal hidden depths to show a calmer and more convincing performance under pressure than he has in the past.
Vivek Ramaswamy has his chance to be the latest in a growing lineage of Republican presidential candidates, often people of colour or white women. Their story begins like so: they come onto the debate stage for the first time, and they really excite a lot of voters in a way that the public don’t usually feel about the “generic” Republicans they’re used to seeing (historically, establishment white guys; now, Trumpy white guys).
I think that with his youth and energy (the dude’s been filmed rapping Lose Yourself in front of an audience, for goodness’ sake, what more do you need to buy he can retain the white working class), he can really make a glowing impression, just as journalists on the ground report he is doing in the early states. He is the likeliest breakout star of this debate. For all of that, anti-woke messaging hasn’t really proven to be the overwhelming priority or attraction of this primary. With a message bound to be so laser-focused on warring with wokeness, I think he is bound for the same fate as his predecessors: a spike in attention, and a lack of long-run potential to sustain this success.
I look forward to seeing the crowd cheer when he promises to preemptively pardon Trump, though. Far be it from me to bleat about how if we condemn Trump for the five hundredth time it’ll make a diff, but, like, promising preemptive pardons no matter the facts of the case is definitely another distinctive step along the yellow brick road of damage to their democracy. He’s also probably the most extreme candidate in the race in terms of individual policy positions, as the latest carrier of the “let’s abolish several federal departments” mantle, and I’m curious to see if and how other candidates attack these glaring weaknesses. (Pledging to abolish the FBI, for instance, probably makes law and order credentials a struggle.)
Pence is still kind of an anomaly to me - he seems on paper very high-value to Republicans, and yet a lot just can’t stand him after January 6 and his perceived betrayal of Trump. I think Pence is going to try to focus on the “I served the constitution” stuff, and good luck to him in trying to have his side of the story heard. I guess it’s also about priming him for the narrative to step in if Trump is convicted: nobody would be more vindicated than the one person utterly loyal until the second Trump stepped over the (legal) line of their democracy. (Again, in the (hypothetical) Republican mind.)
I just have a sense that Pence has all this traditionalist conservative content that would be so valuable in another year, is even more unique now because everybody else has moved on…and yet may just not be what most voters are shopping for anymore. Abortion is bound to be a subject of discussion, and expect Pence to lead the way in pushing to ever further extremes here.
Nikki Haley is in a weird spot for her career. Long talked about as a someday president and a barrier-breaker for Republicans, she’s barely a story now, diminished by being perhaps the single most frequent flip flopper on Trump in all America, and trying to avoid attracting ire in a race already thin on oxygen. Being on this mountaintop is good for her - with such an easy record to attack, she benefits the longer nobody else has an incentive to tussle with her, and her fellow South Carolinan is a) Tim Scott and b) focused on Iowa - the usual deathmatch between state cohabitants is probably at least postponed. (Think of them like Careers in the Hunger Games. Is the most Democrat sentence I’ve ever typed.)
My thoughts on Haley from the previous primary piece remain true: go out there and show how you live for putting the knife into the Democrats. That’s the way to at least hang on and see how the race might shift around you. Haley can’t crack this race herself - history has conspired in such a way as to back her into a dead end - but her enormous experience and skills still leave her ready to make the most if any opportunity presents.
My suspicion is that Chris Christie is getting the 2015 Trump treatment from the media, who are insisting that he could never go anywhere despite registering polling support (especially in New Hampshire) and bringing a unique set of skills to the race. I mean, dude’s polling even with Tim Scott, who according to some analysts is bound to swell into the main Trump alternative. I really want him to be on that debate stage because he’ll bring a lot of life (and probably a lot of boos) to what will otherwise be an affair that likely drains the life from my body like Morbius drains plasma from humans, or like Morbius drains energy from viewers. (That joke showed up way past its prime time, I know, but then so has Christie.)
Pick fights. Show you’re the only one who can challenge Trump and expose the rest as pussyfooting around the obvious question in the race, and therefore unviable wastes of votes. Be the change agent and the Trump on the stage, because nobody else will. Republican voters are looking for a fighter for them, right? You’re not going to be that avatar receiving the nomination at the convention, but you can at least show you’ve got the skillset here and stand out from the rest. Attem, tiger.
Tim Scott is going to be standing on a stage alongside three or four candidates who have strong incentives to raise high hell about Democrats, wokeness, and all manner of liberal degradation. Anti-Trump critics onstage will seek to further divide the party. Amidst all of that, the Senator from South Carolina has a clear role: everybody positively reviews Scott for his soft-spoken optimism, and he can be a calm voice in a shrill room.
On the other hand, questions about Trump will be particularly awkward for him - he’s managed to dodge the issue better than most so far, and the moderators (and other candidates!) may not let him off that easily. His next step is to figure out a puzzle I’m not sure anybody has the answer to yet: overcoming this aggravating barrier where Republicans will, again and again, say they like the guy, they think he’s good, but he’s just not their first choice. Trump is of course sucking up so many supporters, but beyond that it’s hard not to sense the hand of unconscious bias in the equation. How do you challenge that without reaping white backlash? I don’t know!
Secondly, you have the kids at the table, with .6% and .4% support respectively. Asa is 72 and his experiences are from past eras: in a year where so many voters want a younger alternative, nobody’s turning from Trump to him. Forget about the presidency and ask: where my party gone? Be the voice that says, hang on, how can all of this woke nonsense matter against the most important issues Republicans need real policies on?
Doug Burgum could potentially catch on, with his personal wealth sustaining ad bombardment into the future, but his signature issue is energy. Short of a bizarre new energy crisis like an anti-Saudi and anti-American Arabian Revolution, I don’t think he has much room to move. Best of luck on the cost of living and national security message; this could at least speak to some more thoughtful voters in New Hampshire, in a lane of sober fiscal discussion that nobody else is really looking at.
Next, we have the guest who got the first RSVP, but who has promptly denounced it as mail fraud and tuned back into conspiracy YouTube.
Donald Trump has made plans to air a taped interview with Tucker Carlson at the time of the debate. It’s an obvious stunt to drag attention away from the debate, and not even a good one - why not run a live event, which is both more captivating to see and provides a welcome contrast with DeSantis’s inability to handle critical media? Watching recordings of events just doesn’t hit the same.
Should Trump change his mind (possibly through extracting concessions from the RNC, like a modification of the loyalty pledge or a hand on the scales in the primary) and show up last minute, he will crowd everybody else out, no two ways about it. Another two hours of Trump talking over everybody will be an unwelcome reminder to many Republicans of why they have reservations about him, but Trump being Trump is still the most effective strategy he’s got: his authenticity contrasts favourably and he drowns out the others with a sea of attacks, denials and lies, just like he did to Joe Biden in 2020.
Potentially the only danger is a repeat of his campaign launch, where a bunch of people actually bothering to tune in instead of just hearing the press coverage go: Oh. This guy is old. And bitter. And kind of boring. Trump does not have the same energy and momentum and sheer joy around his eternal campaign that he once did, and a media hunting for stories to depict a competitive race are bound, amidst four indictments, to come back to this point eventually. Perhaps that explains his reticence to show up, but we’ll see if that comes back to bite him by further frustrating voters and powerbrokers. I absolutely can see him flip-flopping and attending the second debate, but don’t count on it.
Finally, you have the passersby who are knocking on the door and peering in through the windows, but the residents are kiiinda wondering whether to let them in or pretend they got the date wrong. Will Hurd has the donors but not the polls, and Francis Suarez and Perry Johnson are in that camp as well and both claiming that they’ve got both without the proof of it. Gutsy move, and I think it reflects a belated adaptation to the Trumpian era of politics: all of these slow-moving, rules-based institutions can easily be thrown for a loop if you just say you’re doing what you want, and maybe the party claps back but why not take the risk?
Hurd could have been viable once upon a time, but now he’s just a NeverTrumper. He would be a Trump critic on stage, saying the usual NeverTrumper stuff to no effect, but he’s never gonna sign the pledge, so, shrugs. Seriously, though, why the recalcitrance about signing the pledge? If you truly believe that Trump is an anti-democratic force and you are the one to stop him, you should accept any sacrifice along the way to try to stop him. If you have to wind up posting a Facebook endorsement then disappearing for the better part of a year, so what? You already lost, and it’s not like you’re going to swing votes to Biden.
More obviously, though…why not just lie??? Just sign the pledge and then if Trump wins, break it! What are they going to do, sanction you? You lost the presidential primary as a Never Trumper! You’re done! You think Trump would let himself be bound by a pledge - he’d make it a virtue how he ripped it up and chewed it down! It’s not some fighting-fire-with-fire, anti-democratic resort to make then break a pledge within a party’s internal rules, it’s fair game cheating, and it says so much to me about the ineptitude of the Never Trump movement that nobody has really discussed this life hack yet.
Finally, we have our two wildcards outside the clear top three tiers (DeSantis-Ramaswamy-Pence, Haley-Christie-Scott, and Asa-Burgum-Hurd-any other last minute arrival.) Francis Suarez has the potential to come alive and excite people, particularly for a VP or Cabinet audition: he’s young and he represents the kind of future Republicans see winning them Florida and Arizona and holding onto Texas. Pencil him in as next up after Ramaswamy for a moment, and like the other candidates this low he’ll need it - at such low name recognition and momentum, the higher criteria for the next debates will quickly start blocking them out if they don’t have their moments.
Perry Johnson seemed like he was in the zone of those candidates who barely even count as candidates, in the sense that hundreds of people register to run for President every election but most don’t meet reasonable criteria for being a real candidate. Maybe he’s not, either, but the fact he’s in the conservation to make the debate is kind of impressive?
Anyway, to you, o businessman, I bequeath Occam’s Razor, a tool in frequent use of mine. It’s a cost of living crisis. It’s the economy, stupid. Talk about what stuff costs and how that matters more than any la-di-da about history classes or faraway wars. This stage seems ready set to be a bunch of mice tiptoeing around the elephant outside the room. I’m waiting to see who’s ready to remember that even mice can put the fear of God into the GOP again.
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